关注“特普会”和中国7月经济数据

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals in July still showed resilience. China's official manufacturing PMI in July dropped to 49.3, the new orders index fell to 49.4, and non - manufacturing remained in expansion. China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year in US dollars, higher than expected. The US July PPI month - on - month soared to 0.9%, the largest increase in three years [1]. - The "reciprocal tariff" situation is complex. The US has adjusted tariff policies, and the current tariff situation is in a "stagnant" stage, which will drag down commodities highly affected by external demand [2]. - For commodities, the domestic supply - side is most sensitive to the black and new energy metal sectors. The energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit significantly from overseas inflation expectations. The chemical sector's "anti - involution" space and the mid - term supply of the energy sector are also worthy of attention [3]. - The strategy for commodities and stock index futures is to allocate more industrial products on dips [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - China's economic data in July showed mixed performance. The official manufacturing PMI declined, but exports were strong. The US had unexpected non - farm data in July, and the service PMI improved. The "Great Beauty" Act may support subsequent consumption. After the data release, US stock index futures fell, and traders reduced bets on a September Fed rate cut [1]. - The A - share market on August 14 showed a pattern of rising and then falling, with all three major indices closing down, and trading volume reaching 2.31 trillion. Treasury bonds and commodities generally declined [1]. Tariff Policy - On July 31, the White House issued an executive order to reset "reciprocal tariff" rates for some countries. On August 6, Trump said the US would impose about 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors. The EU's chip exports to the US are subject to a 15% tariff cap. China and the US agreed to suspend the 24% tariff for 90 days starting from August 12, 2025 [2]. Commodity Segments - The black and new energy metal sectors are most sensitive to domestic supply - side changes. The energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit from overseas inflation expectations. The mid - term supply of the energy sector is expected to be relatively loose, with OPEC + accelerating production increases [3]. - In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of varieties such as methanol, PVC, caustic soda, and urea is worthy of attention. Agricultural products have limited short - term fluctuations due to the absence of weather disturbances [3]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, the strategy is to allocate more industrial products on dips [4]. Key News - The US July PPI annual rate was 3.3%, higher than the expected 2.5%. The monthly rate was 0.9%, much higher than the expected 0.2% [5]. - The A - share market on August 14 had a weak performance, with over 4,600 stocks falling, and the trading volume was 2.31 trillion. Commodity futures also showed a general decline, with some exceptions like caustic soda [5]. - US San Francisco Fed President Daly said a large - scale rate cut in September was unnecessary. Trump called for the Fed to cut interest rates [5]. - The "Trump - Putin meeting" is scheduled to start at 22:30 Moscow time on the 15th. The US Treasury Secretary threatened to increase sanctions on Russia if the meeting goes poorly [3][5].