DEPPON(SH:603056) HTSC·2025-08-15 06:06Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company has been downgraded to "Hold" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 20.55 billion for the first half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.2%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 52.15 million, down 84.3% year-on-year and 90.1% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The decline in net profit is primarily attributed to weak demand in the logistics industry, strategic investments in transportation resources to ensure timely delivery, and an increase in high freight, low labor product ratios, which negatively impacted gross margins [1] - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing concentration of market share towards leading players in the industry, despite current weak freight demand and the need for time to adjust product structures [1][5] Revenue and Business Performance - The express delivery business achieved a revenue of RMB 18.61 billion in the first half, with a year-on-year growth of 11.9%. Excluding the integration project with JD Logistics, the revenue growth was 13.5% [2] - The overall logistics industry is facing downward price pressure, with upstream manufacturing and trading companies controlling costs [2] - The company has been upgrading its core product timeliness and launching competitive economy products, which has contributed to the rapid growth of express delivery revenue [2] Cost Structure and Profitability - The company's operating costs reached RMB 19.46 billion in the first half, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%, with a gross margin of 5.3%, down 2.3 percentage points [3] - The increase in operating costs outpaced revenue growth, primarily due to a 30.2% year-on-year increase in transportation costs, which amounted to RMB 9.77 billion, accounting for an increase of 6.9 percentage points in revenue share [3] - The rapid growth in transportation costs is attributed to strategic investments in transportation resources to ensure product delivery timeliness and changes in business structure, with a higher proportion of high freight, low labor products [3] Integration Projects and Future Outlook - The integration project with JD Logistics is progressing, with the number of transfer centers reduced from 153 to 133 by the end of 2024 [4] - The company expects to provide RMB 8.05 billion in services to JD Group and its controlled enterprises in 2025, having completed RMB 2.62 billion in the first half, which is 33% of the expected amount [4] - The company anticipates that the integration project will enter a harvest period in the second half of the year, contributing to performance growth [5] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 down by 14.9%, 4.4%, and 4.9% to RMB 760 million, RMB 1.01 billion, and RMB 1.28 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 0.74, RMB 0.99, and RMB 1.25 [5] - The target price has been set at RMB 16.92, reflecting a valuation premium of 35% over comparable companies in the express delivery sector [5]