甲醇日评：港口累库速度加快-20250815

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - The fundamental outlook for methanol remains weak. From a valuation perspective, upstream coal - based profits are still high, coastal MTO profits have slightly declined, and inland downstream profits are poor with room for repair, making methanol relatively over - valued. In terms of drivers, the anti - involution policy may have limited impact on methanol production, as the proportion of old production facilities is small. Currently, inland coal - based methanol supply is gradually returning, downstream MTO enterprises have high raw material inventories, and port inventory accumulation is accelerating, which suppresses the spot price in East China. After the influence of coking coal sentiment weakens, methanol is expected to fluctuate weakly. (View score: 0) [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Basis - Futures Prices: MA01 decreased from 2479 yuan/ton to 2435 yuan/ton, a decline of 44 yuan/ton (-1.77%); MA05 dropped from 2457 yuan/ton to 2416 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41 yuan/ton (-1.67%); MA09 fell from 2375 yuan/ton to 2340 yuan/ton, a decline of 35 yuan/ton (-1.47%) [1]. - Spot Prices: Prices in regions like Taicang, Shandong, and Guangdong decreased, while those in Shaanxi, Sichuan - Chongqing, and Hubei remained unchanged. Inner Mongolia's price dropped from 2125 yuan/ton to 2120 yuan/ton (-0.24%) [1]. - Basis: The basis of Taicang spot - MA increased from -104 yuan/ton to -85 yuan/ton, an increase of 19 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Upstream Costs - Coal Prices: The price of Buzhoushui Q5500 coal increased from 512.5 yuan/ton to 520 yuan/ton (1.46%), while prices of Datong Q5500 and Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged [1]. - Natural Gas Prices: Industrial natural gas prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.19 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1]. 3.3 Profit Situation - Methanol Production Profits: Coal - based methanol profit decreased from 452.6 yuan/ton to 446.3 yuan/ton (-1.39%), and natural - gas - based methanol profit remained at -412 yuan/ton [1]. - Downstream Profits: Northwest MTO profit increased from -33.6 yuan/ton to -11 yuan/ton (67.26%), and East China MTO profit increased from -620.07 yuan/ton to -550.07 yuan/ton (11.29%). Profits of some downstream products like acetic acid increased, while those of MTBE and formaldehyde remained unchanged [1]. 3.4 Important Information - Domestic: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated downward, opening at 2476 yuan/ton, closing at 2435 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 427,587 lots and an open interest of 557,439 lots [1]. - Foreign: An 850,000 - ton methanol plant in Southeast Asia is under maintenance, and a 600,000 - ton downstream plant is planned to be shut down for maintenance in mid - August. In a Middle - Eastern country, multiple methanol plants are operating stably, with the total loading volume in August rising to 480,000 tons, an increase of 215,000 tons (81.13%) compared to the same period last month [1]. 3.5 Trading Strategy - Given the weak fundamentals, after the influence of coking coal sentiment weakens, methanol is expected to fluctuate weakly [1].