尿素早评：基本面仍有压力-20250815

Report Summary - Investment Rating: Not provided [1] - Core View: The influence of the Indian tender on market sentiment is gradually fading. Returning to the domestic supply - demand situation, the supply pressure of urea remains high, with daily production close to 190,000 tons at a high level. Although the increase in enterprise inventory accumulation is not large due to increased port - collection, the upstream enterprise inventory is still around 860,000 tons. Domestically, agricultural demand may gradually enter the off - season. If export demand is not supplemented, urea prices will face significant downward pressure [1] Key Information by Category 1. Price Changes - Futures Prices: On August 14, compared with August 13, UR01 decreased by 21 yuan/ton (-1.20%) to 1726 yuan/ton, UR05 decreased by 17 yuan/ton (-0.95%) to 1771 yuan/ton, UR09 decreased by 11 yuan/ton (-0.64%) to 1715 yuan/ton, and the Shandong price decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.58%) to 1720 yuan/ton [1] - Domestic Spot Prices: The prices in most regions remained unchanged, except for the small - particle price in Hebei, which decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.57%) to 1740 yuan/ton [1] - Upstream and Downstream Prices: The prices of upstream raw materials such as anthracite and downstream products like compound fertilizer and melamine remained unchanged on August 14 compared with August 13 [1] 2. Basis and Spread - Basis: The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 7 yuan/ton to - 51 yuan/ton [1] - Spread: The 01 - 05 spread decreased by 4 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton [1] 3. Trading Information - Urea Futures Main Contract 2601: On the previous trading day, the opening price was 1741 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1752 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1725 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1726 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1737 yuan/ton, and the position was 174,742 lots [1]