大行分红率还有多少提升空间？

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the banking industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [3][15]. Core Viewpoints - The long-term dividend payout ratio for large banks has room for improvement, with estimates suggesting it could rise to between 43% and 56%, compared to the current average of around 30% [4][10]. - The long-term return on equity (ROE) for large banks is expected to stabilize at a bottom range of 7% to 9%, with the average ROE for 2024 projected at 10.2% [7][10]. - The growth rate of risk-weighted assets is anticipated to decline to 4% or even lower in the long term, reflecting a shift in economic growth reliance from credit to equity financing [9][10]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the banking sector, indicating expected performance above the market index by over 10% [3][15]. Long-term Dividend Rate - The analysis indicates that large banks can achieve a long-term dividend payout ratio of 43%-56%, which is significantly higher than the current average of approximately 30% [4][10]. Return on Equity (ROE) - The long-term ROE for large banks is projected to remain at a bottom range of 7%-9%, with factors such as stable net interest margins and credit costs contributing to this outlook [7][8][10]. Risk-Weighted Asset Growth - The report forecasts that the long-term growth rate of risk-weighted assets for large banks will likely fall below the nominal GDP growth rate, with an estimate of around 4% or lower [9][10].