Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View of the Report - Zinc prices have fallen, and there is restocking behavior in the spot market, but social inventories are increasing and are about to exceed the same period in the past five years. Spot liquidity has improved, but purchases remain cautious. The TC of domestic and imported ores continues to rise, smelting profits are increasing, and the supply is expected to increase. Even during the peak consumption season, domestic inventory accumulation is expected to continue, and if the peak - season consumption expectations are not met, zinc prices will face significant pressure. Zinc prices are expected to be relatively weak compared to other non - ferrous metals, but the impact of overseas inventories needs attention [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is -$1.50 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,510 yuan per ton, down 50 yuan from the previous trading day, with a premium of -50 yuan per ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,490 yuan per ton, down 50 yuan, with a premium of -70 yuan per ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,500 yuan per ton, down 50 yuan, with a premium of -60 yuan per ton [1] - Futures: On August 14, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,600 yuan per ton, closed at 22,480 yuan per ton, down 190 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 78,030 lots, and the open interest was 80,798 lots. The highest price was 22,640 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,430 yuan per ton [2] - Inventory: As of August 14, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 129,200 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory was 77,450 tons, a decrease of 1,025 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - Zinc prices have declined, and there is restocking in the spot market. However, social inventories are increasing and are approaching the five - year average for the same period. Spot liquidity has improved, but buyers remain cautious. The TC of domestic and imported ores continues to rise, smelting profits are high, and smelting enthusiasm remains strong. The supply is expected to increase. Even during the peak consumption season, inventory accumulation is expected to continue in China, and if the consumption expectations are not met, zinc prices will face pressure. Zinc prices may be relatively weak compared to other non - ferrous metals, but the impact of overseas inventories needs attention [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. - Arbitrage: Neutral [5]
新能源及有色金属日报：库存增加，现货市场流通充足-20250815
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-08-15 06:47