新能源及有色金属日报：临近周末，现货升水预计相对坚挺-20250815

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for copper is cautiously bullish. For arbitrage, it is recommended to hold off. For options, the strategy is to short put at 77,000 yuan/ton [8] 2. Core View of the Report - The current low domestic TC price makes copper prices prone to rise and difficult to fall. Combined with the increased market expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the strong performance of precious metal prices, it is advisable to adopt a strategy of buying hedges on dips for copper operations, with the suggested buying range between 77,000 - 77,500 yuan/ton [8] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On August 14, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 79,290 yuan/ton and closed at 78,950 yuan/ton, a -0.54% decline from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at 78,760 yuan/ton and closed at 78,940 yuan/ton, a 0.01% decline from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - The domestic electrolytic copper spot market remained strong. SMM1 electrolytic copper was quoted at 79,320 - 79,550 yuan/ton, with a premium of 140 - 280 yuan/ton to the current contract, and an average premium of 210 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 10 yuan from the previous day. Considering the approaching delivery date and downstream stocking demand on Friday, the spot premium is expected to remain firm [2] Important Information Summary - Macro and Geopolitical Aspects: In the US employment market, the number of initial jobless claims last week decreased by 3,000 to 224,000, lower than expected. The number of continuing jobless claims in the previous week dropped to 1,953,000, also lower than expected. US PPI in July increased by 0.9% month - on - month, the largest increase in three years. The stronger - than - expected employment and inflation data may put downward pressure on copper prices [3] - Mine End: Australia's second - largest gold miner is seeking to increase its investment in copper, with the potential to raise the proportion of copper business revenue to 40% from the current 25% [4] - Smelting and Import: From January to July 2025, the cumulative production of cathode copper by 24 domestic sample enterprises was 7.1346 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.78%. In July, the output was 1.0751 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.84% and a month - on - month increase of 1.17%. An Indian copper smelter with an annual capacity of 500,000 tons has applied to LME to become a listed copper delivery brand [5] - Consumption: The rapid construction of AI data centers may further tighten the global copper market, potentially leading to a supply shortage of 6 million tons by 2035. The copper demand in this industry is expected to average about 400,000 tons per year in the next decade, peaking at 572,000 tons in 2028 [6] - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: LME warehouse receipts changed by 875 tons to 155,850 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 1,634 tons to 24,434 tons. On August 11, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 1.256 million tons, a change of - 60,000 tons from the previous week [7]