PA联盟运价中枢跟随下跌，马士基PSS下修

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight rate of the PA alliance has declined, and Maersk has lowered its PSS. The freight rates of OA and PA alliances are following the downward trend. The 8 - month contract freight rate has reached its peak and is continuously being revised downward, while the 10 - month contract is mainly for short - allocation, and the 12 - month contract's risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen. The main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is advisable to go short on the 10 - month contract when the price is high [1][3][4][5]. - In terms of strategies, the main contract is expected to be weak in oscillation, and it is recommended to short the 10 - month contract when the price is high [7]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Market Analysis - Online Quotes: Different shipping companies in various alliances have different price trends. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam price has increased, while HPL's price remains stable. Some companies in the MSC + Premier Alliance and Ocean Alliance also have specific price quotes for different time periods. Maersk has lowered its PSS for the Far East - Nordic region to 50/100 [1]. - Geopolitical Aspect: China emphasizes the importance of maintaining the safety of the Red Sea shipping route and promoting the political settlement of the Yemen issue [2]. II. Shipping Capacity - Weekly and Monthly Shipping Capacity: From August to October, the weekly and monthly average shipping capacities of China - European base ports show certain fluctuations. There are also empty sailings, TBNs, and additional ships in different months. For example, in August, there are 4 empty sailings in the OA alliance, and Maersk and the OA alliance have added several additional ships [3]. III. Contract Analysis - August Contract: The freight rate has reached its peak and is continuously being revised downward, which brings uncertainty to the estimated delivery settlement price. The delivery settlement price is the arithmetic average of the SCFIS on August 11, 18, and 25. The shipping company's prices have entered a downward cycle [3]. - October Contract: It is mainly for short - allocation. Normal years see the freight rate in October 20% - 30% lower than that in August. Attention should be paid to the price follow - up of other shipping companies after Maersk's freight rate drops, and the additional ships announced by HPL in October may put pressure on the spot price. In the context of a large discount, it is relatively safe to short the EC2510 contract when the price is high, but excessive short - chasing should be avoided [4][5]. - December Contract: The regular seasonal pattern of high freight rates in the fourth quarter still exists, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen. If it reopens, the seasonal pattern may be challenged [5]. IV. Futures and Spot Prices - Futures Prices: As of August 14, 2025, the closing prices of different contracts of the container shipping index for European routes are provided, including EC2602, EC2604, etc. [6]. - Spot Prices: The SCFI and SCFIS prices for different routes (Shanghai - Europe, Shanghai - US West, Shanghai - US East) are given on different dates [6]. V. Ship Delivery - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of now, 157 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.2513 million TEU. As of July 27, 2025, 49 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and 7 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered [6]. VI. Strategy and Risk - Strategy: The main contract is expected to be weak in oscillation, and it is recommended to short the 10 - month contract when the price is high [7]. - Risk: Downward risks include an unexpected decline in the European and American economies, a significant drop in oil prices, etc. Upward risks include the recovery of the European and American economies, supply chain problems, etc. [7]