贵金属日评：生产与消费通胀反弹抑制降息预期，美联储隔夜逆回购规模创新低-20250815

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The rebound of inflation in the production and consumption sectors in the US has reduced the market's expectations for the number of Fed rate cuts. However, due to continuous gold purchases by global central banks and persistent geopolitical risks, the downside space for precious metal prices may be limited. It is recommended that investors wait for price dips to establish long positions [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Market Data: On August 14, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai gold was 775.10 yuan/gram, up 0.39 yuan from the previous day and down 8.17 yuan from the previous week; the closing price of COMEX gold futures active contract was 3382.30 US dollars/ounce, down 24.70 US dollars from the previous day and down 49.50 US dollars from the previous week; the price of London gold spot was 3343.85 US dollars/ounce, down 20.55 US dollars from the previous day and down 28.15 US dollars from the previous week [1]. - Important Information: US inflation soared in July, with the PPI rising 0.9% month - on - month, a three - year high, and 3.3% year - on - year. The Fed's reverse repurchase tool usage reached a new low since 2021 [1]. Silver - Market Data: On August 14, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai silver was 9274.00 yuan/kilogram, down 4.00 yuan from the previous day and up 25.00 yuan from the previous week; the closing price of COMEX silver futures active contract was 38.04 US dollars/ounce, down 0.52 US dollars from the previous day and up 0.10 US dollars from the previous week; the price of London silver spot was 38.32 US dollars/ounce, down 0.29 US dollars from the previous day and up 0.54 US dollars from the previous week [1]. - Important Information: The US Treasury will issue over 1 trillion US dollars of mainly short - term treasury bonds in the third quarter to replenish the cash account. The Fed's overnight reverse repurchase tool usage is approaching zero, which may gradually reduce the bank reserve scale. Import tariffs have pushed up commodity prices, and the PPI and core CPI in the US in July have increased, reducing the Fed's expected rate cut times to September/October [1]. Other Markets - Commodities: On August 14, 2025, INE crude oil was 481.90 yuan/barrel, down 7.60 yuan from the previous day and down 24.00 yuan from the previous week; ICE Brent crude oil was 66.89 US dollars/barrel, up 1.15 US dollars from the previous day and down 0.07 US dollars from the previous week; NYMEX crude oil was 63.93 US dollars/barrel, up 1.19 US dollars from the previous day and down 0.34 US dollars from the previous week [1]. - Interest Rates: The US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield was 4.2900%, up 0.05% from the previous day and up 0.07% from the previous week; the US 10 - year Treasury TIPS yield was 1.8800%, up 0.02% from the previous day [1]. - Exchange Rates: The US dollar index was 98.2041, up 0.42 from the previous day and down 0.02 from the previous week; the US dollar to RMB central parity rate was 7.1337, down 0.00 from the previous day and down 0.00 from the previous week [1]. - Stock Indexes: The Shanghai Composite Index was 3,666.4426, down 17.02 from the previous day and up 31.31 from the previous week; the S&P 500 was 6,468.5400, up 1.96 from the previous day and up 123.48 from the previous week [1]. Central Bank Policies - European Central Bank: It paused rate cuts in July, keeping the deposit mechanism rate at 28%. The market expects about one rate cut by the end of 2025 due to the continued recovery of the manufacturing PMI in the eurozone and Germany and France [1]. - Bank of England: Its key interest rate dropped 25 basis points to 4.0% in August. It continued to reduce its holdings of 100 billion pounds of government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025 and may slow down the balance - sheet reduction speed later. It is difficult to cut rates before the end of 2025 [1]. - Bank of Japan: Its benchmark interest rate remained unchanged at 0.5% in July. It will start to reduce the quarterly treasury bond purchase scale from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen in April 2026. There is still an expectation of a rate hike before the end of 2025 [1].