沪铜日评：国内铜冶炼厂8月检修产能或环减，国内电解铜社会库存量环比减少-20250815

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Production and consumption - side inflation rebounds, reducing the expected number of Fed rate - cuts. However, the decrease in scrap - copper - produced anode plates and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory may keep the Shanghai copper price oscillating. It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - Shanghai Copper Futures: On August 14, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 78,950 yuan, down 430 yuan from the previous day; trading volume was 51,734 lots, a decrease of 315 lots; open interest was 152,341 lots, a decline of 6,536 lots; SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price was 79,435 yuan, down 40 yuan, and inventory was 24,434 tons, an increase of 1,634 tons [2]. - Shanghai Copper Basis and Spread: The Shanghai copper basis was 485 yuan on August 14, 2025, an increase of 390 yuan from the previous day. There were also changes in spot premiums and discounts in different regions and spreads between different contract months [2]. - London Copper: The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) on August 14, 2025, was 9,777, unchanged from the previous day. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants dropped by 155,850 tons. There were also changes in contract spreads [2]. - COMEX Copper: The closing price of the active copper futures contract on August 14, 2025, was 4.4975, down 0.02 from the previous day, and the total inventory increased by 915 tons [2]. Industry News - Policy Impact: Government policy adjustments may cause the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises to continue to decline [2]. - Supply Disruptions: There are operational disruptions in copper mines, and the Las Bambas project in Peru may be affected by the presidential election. There are also changes in the supply of electrolytic copper from South America [2]. - Project Developments: Multiple copper - related projects are under construction or planned, which may affect the production of electrolytic copper in August, such as the Jiangtong Hongyuan Phase II project, the Baotou Jinshan High - Purity Copper project, etc. Some overseas smelters face issues like equipment failure, supply shortages, and high costs [2]. Investment Strategy - It is recommended that investors wait and see. For Shanghai copper, pay attention to the support level around 77,000 - 78,000 and the pressure level around 80,000 - 81,000; for London copper, the support level is around 9,300 - 9,500 and the pressure level is around 10,000 - 10,200; for US copper, the support level is around 4.0 - 4.2 and the pressure level is around 4.6 - 5.0 [2].