现货价格涨跌互现，豆粕宽幅震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a cautious and bearish rating for the strategy [3][5] 2. Core View of the Report - The current growth of new - season US soybeans is good, with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest, but there is no substantial progress in Sino - US policies, causing market concerns. In China, although the soybean supply is sufficient and the soybean meal inventory is rising, the increase in Brazilian premiums and the lack of policy progress support the soybean meal price. For corn, the market supply and demand situation is complex, with low market confidence and weak demand. In the short term, the fundamentals of both are unlikely to change significantly, and policies and Brazilian premiums will be important factors affecting prices [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 3157 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (-0.19%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2686 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan/ton (-1.36%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3090 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2980 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2970 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2660 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [1] - Brazilian Soybean Exports: It is estimated that the soybean export volume in August 2025 will be 880 million tons, a 10.3% increase from the same period last year. The export volume from August 10 - 16 was 234 million tons, and the estimated export volume from January to August 2025 will reach 8855 million tons [1] 3.1.2 Corn and Corn Starch - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2281 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (+0.09%); the corn starch 2509 contract was 2648 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (-0.11%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2730 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Russian Wheat Planting Area: The wheat planting area will decrease from 28.506 million hectares to 26.904 million hectares, including a decrease in winter wheat from 16.134 million hectares to 15.815 million hectares and a decrease in spring wheat from 12.372 million hectares to 11.089 million hectares [3] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Soybean Meal - The growth of new - season US soybeans is good, with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. However, there is no substantial progress in Sino - US policies, causing market concerns. In China, the soybean supply is sufficient, the soybean meal inventory is rising, but the increase in Brazilian premiums and import costs support the soybean meal price. Future focus should be on new - season US soybeans and policy changes [2] 3.2.2 Corn - In China, the remaining grain in the market is less than the same period last year, but market confidence is low, and traders are actively selling. The upcoming listing of spring corn in North China can supplement the supply. Downstream enterprises mainly purchase on demand, and the demand is weak. Future focus should be on the output of new - season corn [4] 3.3 Strategy - The strategy for both soybean meal and corn is cautious and bearish [3][5]