新能源及有色金属日报：库存小幅降低，碳酸锂现货价格偏强运行-20250815

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [4] Core Viewpoint - The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate has improved. With consumption support and disturbances at the mining end, lithium carbonate is expected to run strongly, but the market fluctuates greatly, and participants need to manage risks [2] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - On August 14, 2025, the main contract 2511 of lithium carbonate opened at 85,500 yuan/ton and closed at 85,300 yuan/ton, with a 0.28% change from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 1,060,127 lots, and the open interest was 389,177 lots, down from 392,675 lots the previous day. The basis was - 4,100 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts was 21,939 lots, a change of 260 lots from the previous day [1] - Battery - grade lithium carbonate was priced at 79,700 - 84,300 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan/ton from the previous day; industrial - grade lithium carbonate was priced at 79,050 - 80,450 yuan/ton, up 950 yuan/ton. The 6% lithium concentrate price was 990 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton. Downstream procurement and trader transactions increased, and the transaction price of lithium carbonate spot moved up significantly [1] - Weekly production increased by 424 tons to 19,980 tons, with an increase in production from salt lakes and spodumene and a decrease from mica. Weekly inventory decreased by 162 tons to 142,256 tons, with an increase in intermediate - link inventory and a decrease in smelter inventory [1] Strategy - The supply - demand pattern has improved. The lithium mining of leading large - scale manufacturers has stopped, and the duration is unknown. The subsequent approval of other mines is also uncertain. Attention should be paid to the mining end. With consumption support, lithium carbonate is expected to run strongly, but the market fluctuates greatly, and risk management is necessary [2] Risks Affecting Investment - Consumption end falls short of expectations [4] - Mining end disturbances exceed expectations [4] - Macroeconomic sentiment and open - interest changes have an impact [4]