棉价走势偏强，郑糖依旧承压

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral [3] - Sugar: Neutral [6] - Pulp: Neutral [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - The cotton market shows a complex situation. Internationally, although the USDA has reduced global cotton production and ending stocks, the supply in the 25/26 season is expected to be relatively loose. Domestically, the cotton price has short - term support but limited upside in the long - term due to factors like new cotton listing and weak demand [2]. - The sugar market is under pressure. Brazilian data is bearish, and in the domestic market, the slowdown in domestic sugar sales and a large amount of imported sugar arriving at ports increase the pressure on Zhengzhou sugar futures [6]. - The pulp market has supply and demand imbalances. There is an oversupply situation in the market with high port inventories, and weak demand both at home and abroad restricts the pulp price increase [8]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 14,155 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (+0.18%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,060 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,214 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton [1]. - Recent market information shows that ICE futures decline has stimulated some import demand, but most spinning enterprises still make small - order purchases. Yarn prices have a slight increase, but textile mills are not strong in price - holding due to weak downstream demand [1]. Market Analysis - Internationally, the USDA report is bullish, but the supply in the 25/26 season is expected to be loose. The US cotton balance sheet is difficult to improve, and the international cotton price lacks a clear driving force. Domestically, the cotton price has short - term support from low inventory and limited imports, but the new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress the price, and the demand outlook is uncertain [2]. Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. The cotton price has support below but limited upside in the long - term [3]. Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5,659 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (+0.04%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,980 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,860 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton [4]. - India plans to allow 4 - 5 million tons of sugar to be converted into ethanol production in the 2025/26 season, and the remaining sugar will be considered for export [4]. Market Analysis - The Brazilian data is bearish, and the raw sugar futures are in a bottom - oscillating state. In the domestic market, the slowdown in domestic sugar sales and a large amount of imported sugar arriving at ports increase the pressure on Zhengzhou sugar futures [6]. Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. In the short - term, Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to oscillate within a range, and a bearish view is taken in the long - term [6]. Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2511 contract was 5,318 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (+0.30%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,860 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [6]. - The import wood pulp spot market was mostly stable, with limited changes. The prices of some imported hardwood pulp grades increased, but the downstream follow - up was general [7]. Market Analysis - Supply: The wood pulp import volume increased in the first half of 2025, and domestic production capacity will be put into operation in the second half. However, the high port inventory means that the supply pressure remains. Demand: Both domestic and international demand is weak, and the terminal demand improvement in the second half of the year is limited [8]. Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. The pulp market fundamentals have no obvious improvement, and the pulp price is difficult to break away from the bottom in the short - term [9].