贵金属日报：美就业与通胀韧性仍存，降息前景遇冷-20250815

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [8] - Silver: Neutral [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Hold off [9] Core Viewpoints - The resilience of US employment and inflation has cooled the prospects of interest rate cuts, and precious metal prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term. Attention should be paid to the US retail sales month-on-month rate data for July [1]. - The trading logic of silver prices is still in sync with that of gold, mainly driven by future easing expectations on the macro level, and is expected to remain volatile in the short term under the cooling of interest rate cut expectations [8][9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On August 14, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 778.12 yuan/gram and closed at 778.70 yuan/gram, a change of 0.13% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. During the night session, it opened at 776.9 yuan/gram and closed at 774.54 yuan/gram, up 0.53% from the afternoon close [2]. - On August 14, 2025, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 9,332.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,286.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of -0.15% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 350,484 lots, and the open interest was 366,680 lots. During the night session, it opened at 9,242 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,197 yuan/kilogram, down 0.96% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On August 14, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.29%, a change of +5 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year yields was 0.56%, down 1 BP from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On August 14, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, the long positions changed by -90 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions changed by 0 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract on the previous trading day was 188,176 lots, a change of -30.00% from the previous trading day [4]. - On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions changed by -328 lots, and the short positions changed by -408 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 532,407 lots, a change of -16.86% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 961.35 tons, a decrease of 2.87 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,071.31 tons, a decrease of 28.25 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On August 14, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was -8.95 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -671.04 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the main contract prices of gold and silver on the SHFE was approximately 83.86, a change of 0.28% from the previous trading day. The ratio of gold and silver prices in the overseas market was 87.08, a change of -1.96% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On August 14, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 22,284 kilograms, a change of -31.65% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 465,346 kilograms, a change of 23.50% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,664 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 47,970 kilograms [7]. Strategy - Gold: The short-term price of gold is expected to remain volatile, with the Au2510 contract's oscillation range possibly between 765 yuan/gram and 795 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver: The short-term price of silver is expected to remain volatile, with the Ag2510 contract's oscillation range possibly between 9,015 yuan/kilogram and 9,350 yuan/kilogram [9]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9]. - Options: Hold off [9].