原油日报：特普会结果将影响油市走向-20250815

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests short - term range - bound oscillation for oil prices and a medium - term short - position allocation [3] Core Viewpoint - The outcome of the Trump - Putin meeting will influence the oil market. If there are signs of progress, the oil market will interpret it as a bearish signal, and in the medium term, relaxing sanctions on Russian oil helps Russian crude production increase. If the negotiation fails, US sanctions on Russia may intensify [2] Summary by Related Catalog Market News and Important Data - SC crude oil's main contract rose 0.95% to 488 yuan per barrel [1] - Vietnam bought 1 million barrels of US WTI crude oil for November delivery, the first purchase in 2025 [1] - US Bank reaffirmed its bearish outlook on oil prices in the second half of this year, with Brent crude expected to average $63.50 per barrel and temporarily fall below $60 [1] - In early August, despite increased drone attacks on Russian refineries, Russian oil product exports increased, with fuel oil shipments reaching the highest level since the conflict began. The total refined oil exports in the first 10 days of August climbed to 2.31 million barrels per day, 9% higher than the daily average in July [1] - Russia may extend the gasoline export ban until the end of September [1] - Iran has reached an agreement to resume negotiations with the US [1] Investment Logic - Putin may offer enough concessions to Trump to avoid further oil sanctions in the short term, and Trump may postpone the plan to impose a 25% additional tariff on India's purchase of Russian oil. Any progress in the meeting will be seen as a bearish signal by the oil market, while a lack of progress may lead to stricter US sanctions on Russia [2] Strategy - Short - term range - bound oscillation for oil prices and medium - term short - position allocation [3] Risk - Downside risks: US relaxes sanctions on Russian oil, macro black swan events [3] - Upside risks: US intensifies sanctions on Russian oil, large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [3]