燃料油日报：成本端指引偏空，盘面延续跌势-20250815

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost - side guidance is bearish, and the fuel oil market continues its downward trend. The main contracts of SHFE fuel oil futures and INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down by 1.03% and 0.23% respectively. The short - term uncertainty of crude oil prices comes from the results of the Russia - US summit on the 15th, which may affect market sentiment and fuel oil prices [1]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, after continuous adjustments in the market structure, short - term contradictions are relatively limited. The spot supply is abundant, and the demand lacks growth momentum. The inventory in the Asia - Pacific region is high. If the crack spread is fully adjusted, the market structure may strengthen again, but the accumulated inventory needs to be digested in the short term [1]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the current market pressure is limited, and the fundamentals are stronger than high - sulfur fuel oil in the near term. However, there is no shortage expectation. In the medium - term, due to sufficient remaining capacity, supply will be released when crack profits are appropriate. The carbon - neutral trend in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low - sulfur fuel oil, and there is significant resistance above the market [1]. - The strategy for high - sulfur fuel oil is to be weakly volatile; the strategy for low - sulfur fuel oil is also to be weakly volatile. There are no strategies for cross - varieties, cross - periods, spot - futures, or options [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed at 2,700 yuan/ton, down 1.03% during the day session; the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed at 3,449 yuan/ton, down 0.23% during the day session [1]. - Crude oil prices have been oscillating downward recently, with bearish cost - side guidance. The short - term uncertainty of crude oil prices comes from the Russia - US summit on the 15th, which may cause additional market fluctuations and affect the direction of fuel oil prices [1]. - The high - sulfur fuel oil market has limited short - term contradictions, abundant supply, and weak demand. The Asia - Pacific inventory is high, and the accumulated inventory needs to be digested [1]. - The low - sulfur fuel oil market has limited current pressure, stronger near - term fundamentals than high - sulfur fuel oil, but no shortage expectation. In the medium - term, sufficient capacity and the carbon - neutral trend in shipping will limit the market [1]. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Weakly volatile [2]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Weakly volatile [2]. - Cross - varieties: None [2]. - Cross - periods: None [2]. - Spot - futures: None [2]. - Options: None [2].