菜籽进口结构或改变，菜油冲高回落

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Due to the trade friction between China and Canada regarding rapeseed, the import cost of Canadian rapeseed has significantly increased. Some traders are seeking to import rapeseed from Australia, but the market expects the impact to be limited, causing the price of oils to rise and then fall [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Summary Futures Market - Yesterday, the closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9,368.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 56 yuan or 0.59% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,520.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 56.00 yuan or 0.65% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9,840.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 224.00 yuan or 2.23% [1] Spot Market - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9,310.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160.00 yuan or 1.69%, with a spot basis of P01 + -58.00, a decrease of 104.00 yuan [1] - In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,630.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50.00 yuan/ton or 0.58%, with a spot basis of Y01 + 110.00, an increase of 6.00 yuan [1] - In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,950.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 220.00 yuan or 2.16%, with a spot basis of OI01 + 110.00, an increase of 4.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Information Summary Import Prices - The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (September shipment) was 460 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - The C&F price of US West soybeans (September shipment) was 454 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - The C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (October shipment) was 497 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton from the previous trading day [2] - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (October shipment) was 549 US dollars/ton, an increase of 7 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (December shipment) was 539 US dollars/ton, an increase of 7 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (September shipment) was 1,146 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (November shipment) was 1,140 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (September shipment) was 1,035 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (November shipment) was 1,015 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] Import Premiums - The import premium of Mexican Gulf soybeans (September shipment) was 210 cents/bushel, a decrease of 4 cents/bushel from the previous trading day [2] - The import premium of US West Coast soybeans (September shipment) was 184 cents/bushel, a decrease of 4 cents/bushel from the previous trading day [2] - The import premium of Brazilian ports (October shipment) was 313 cents/bushel, a decrease of 12 cents/bushel from the previous trading day [2] Brazilian Soybean Forecast - It is estimated that the soybean production in Brazil in the 2024/25 season will reach 169.657 million tons, an increase of 21.9207 million tons or 14.8% year - on - year, and an increase of 169,100 tons or 0.1% month - on - month [2] - The sown area of soybeans in Brazil in the 2024/25 season is expected to reach 47.6372 million hectares, an increase of 1.4826 million hectares or 3.2% year - on - year, and an increase of 22,300 hectares month - on - month [2] - The soybean yield per unit area in Brazil in the 2024/25 season is expected to be 3.56 tons/hectare, an increase of 360.5 kg/hectare or 11.3% year - on - year, and an increase of 1.9 kg/hectare or 0.1% month - on - month [2]