碳酸锂日评：碳酸锂周度产量不降反升-20250815

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The profit of lithium carbonate has been restored, production has rebounded, downstream demand has increased, and social inventory has been depleted. In the short - term, both supply and demand have strengthened. The impact from Jiangxi's mining end continues, but the exchange has taken measures to cool down coking coal futures. It is necessary to guard against the decline of "contrarian" sentiment. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate widely. In operation, it is recommended to conduct short - term range trading and appropriately buy options for protection [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Data 3.1 Futures Market - On August 14, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated widely. The trading volume was 1,060,127 lots (-185,297), and the open interest was 389,177 lots (-3,498). The contango in the spot market was strong, and the basis discount narrowed [3] 3.2 Raw Material Prices - The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) increased from $926.00 to $937.00; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) rose from $1,275.00 to $1,300.00; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) increased from $2,030.00 to $2,075.00; the price of montebrasite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was $0.00 (previously $7,250.00), and the price of montebrasite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) remained at $8,350.00 [3] 3.3 Lithium Product Prices - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% domestic) rose from $81,000.00 to $82,000.00; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% domestic) increased from $78,800.00 to $79,750.00; the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% CIF China, Japan and South Korea) increased from $8.50/kg to $8.60/kg; the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% coarse - grained domestic) rose from $71,990.00 to $73,040.00; the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% micronized domestic) increased from $77,110.00 to $78,110.00 [3] 3.4 Downstream Product Prices - The average price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was $76,575.00; the average price of ternary precursor 523 (single - crystal/power - type) remained at $76,830.00; the average price of ternary precursor 622 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) remained at $72,130.00; the average price of ternary precursor 811 (polycrystalline/power - type) remained at $90,235.00; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power - type) rose from $118,795.00 to $118,995.00; the average price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) increased from $113,260.00 to $113,530.00; the average price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) increased from $116,330.00 to $116,610.00; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power - type) increased from $145,970.00 to $146,070.00; the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) rose from $35,050.00 to $35,390.00; the average price of lithium iron phosphate (mid - to high - end energy - storage type) increased from $31,235.00 to $34,040.00; the average price of lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy - storage type) rose from $31,000.00 to $31,230.00; the average price of lithium cobalt oxide (60%, 4.35V/domestic) increased from $223,350.00 to $223,850.00 [3] 3.5 Supply and Demand - Supply side: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased. In August, the production of lithium hydroxide decreased, and the planned production of lithium carbonate increased. Last week, the production of power batteries increased [3] - Demand side: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. In July, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued, but the sales volume decreased month - on - month, and the 3C shipments were average. In August, the planned production of energy - storage batteries increased [3] 3.6 Inventory - Registered warehouse receipts were 21,939 tons (+260 tons). Social inventory decreased, smelters reduced inventory, while downstream and other sectors accumulated inventory. The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory was 142,256 tons [3] 4. Market Information - The US July PPI annual rate reached 3.3%, the highest since February; the July PPI monthly rate was 0.9%, the largest increase since June 2022. After the data was released, interest - rate futures traders reduced their bets on Fed rate cuts [3]