天然与合成橡胶日评：天然橡胶震荡运行，合成橡胶震荡偏弱-20250815

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Natural rubber may fluctuate due to typhoon - affected production areas and weak downstream demand [2]. - Synthetic rubber may show a weak - fluctuating trend because of insufficient upstream raw material price support and weak demand [2]. - Pay attention to the support and pressure levels of natural rubber (14900 - 15100 and 16200 - 16500) and butadiene rubber (11200 - 11400 and 12200 - 12400) [2]. 3. Summary by Related Aspects Natural Rubber - Market Data: On August 14, 2025, the closing price was 15635, down 165 from the previous day; the trading volume was 382182 lots, an increase of 66725 lots; the open interest of the active futures contract was 181852 lots, a decrease of 582 lots; the registered warrant volume was 179070, a decrease of 1130; the basis was - 785, up 165 [2]. - Supply: Future precipitation is expected in major overseas production areas, and domestic production areas are affected by typhoon "Yang", with large precipitation in Guangdong, Guangxi, and some precipitation in Hainan and Yunnan [2]. - Inventory: As of August 8, 2025, the weekly inventory of SHFE natural rubber warehouses was 200.33 thousand tons, an increase of 1.9 thousand tons; the weekly social inventory of Qingdao natural rubber was 40.15 million tons, an increase of 21.2 million tons; the bonded area inventory was 38.57 million tons, a decrease of 0.2 million tons [2]. - Cost: As of August 11, 2025, the glue purchase price in Songkhla, Thailand was 51.2 baht/gram, unchanged; the daily purchase price of natural rubber latex in Hainan was 15400 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Demand: As of August 14, 2025, the weekly operating rate of Shandong all - steel tires was 63.07%, up 2.09% from the previous week; the weekly operating rate of Chinese semi - steel tires was 72.25%, down 2.28% from the previous week [2]. Synthetic Rubber - Market Data: On August 13, 2025, the closing price was 11645, down 105 from the previous day; the trading volume was 68153 lots, a decrease of 12028 lots; the open interest of the active futures contract was 23673 lots, a decrease of 2884 lots; the registered warrant volume was 10470, unchanged; the basis was - 78.33, up 105 [2]. - Supply: As of August 14, 2025, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 62.91%, down 1.8% from the previous week; the weekly capacity utilization rate of styrene - butadiene rubber was 80.71%, up 1.39% from the previous week [2]. - Inventory: As of August 14, 2025, the weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber was 11531 tons, a decrease of 1135 tons [2]. - Cost: The international oil price declined, the butadiene production capacity increased, and the overall balance in the Northeast region was achieved. As of August 11, 2025, the daily average price of Chinese butadiene (99.6%) was 9375 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - Demand: The demand is weak, and the car market has entered the traditional off - season. In July 2025, the sales volume of trucks was 264 thousand, a decrease of 52.2 thousand from the previous month; from January to July 2025, the cumulative production and sales volume of Chinese automobiles were 18.235 million and 18.269 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.7% and 12% [2].