行业点评报告：新房上海同环比领涨，二手房价格同环比降幅缩小

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The new housing price decline has narrowed year-on-year, with first-tier cities showing a reduced month-on-month decline [5][14] - The second-hand housing price decline has also narrowed both month-on-month and year-on-year [6][19] - In July 2025, new housing prices in Shanghai led the market with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 6.1% [7][26] - The overall real estate market is moving towards stabilization, supported by various policies aimed at halting the decline [8][28] Summary by Sections New Housing Price Trends - In July 2025, the month-on-month price changes for new housing in first, second, and third-tier cities were -0.2%, -0.4%, and -0.3% respectively, with the overall decline for 70 cities at -0.3% [5][14] - Year-on-year, first, second, and third-tier cities saw price changes of -1.1%, -2.8%, and -4.2%, leading to an overall decline of 3.4% for 70 cities, a reduction of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [5][14] Second-Hand Housing Price Trends - The month-on-month decline for second-hand housing prices in July 2025 was -0.5%, with first, second, and third-tier cities showing declines of -1.0%, -0.5%, and -0.5% respectively [6][19] - Year-on-year, second-hand housing prices across 70 cities fell by 5.9%, with first, second, and third-tier cities experiencing declines of -3.4%, -5.6%, and -6.4% respectively [6][19] Market Performance in Key Cities - In July 2025, among 35 key cities, new housing prices in Shanghai, Urumqi, and Changchun increased month-on-month, while year-on-year increases were noted in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Taiyuan [7][26] - The overall performance of second-hand housing prices in July showed that only Taiyuan experienced a month-on-month increase, while all other cities reported declines [26][27] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong credit ratings that can cater to improving customer demand, such as Greentown China, China Overseas Development, and China Merchants Shekou [8][28] - It also recommends companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery, such as China Resources Land and Longfor Group [8][28] - Additionally, it highlights quality property management firms under the "Good House, Good Service" policy, including China Resources Mixc Life and Greentown Service [8][28]