Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-15 08:25Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the soda ash futures rose 4.73% with a volatile trend of first falling and then rising, while the glass futures rose 1.25% and showed an overall weakening trend. Looking ahead, the supply of soda ash is expected to remain abundant, demand will continue to decline, and prices will face pressure, but there may be variables due to anti - involution speculation. For glass, the supply is at a low level, and with the approaching peak season and a possible interest - rate cut, the market may start restocking [7]. - The recommended trading strategy is to trade the SA2601 contract in the range of 1340 - 1450 with a stop - loss range of 1280 - 1480, and operate the FG2601 in the range of 1140 - 1230 with a stop - loss range of 1100 - 1250 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: Soda ash futures first fell and then rose, affected by rumors of production restrictions in Qinghai and lithium carbonate market fluctuations. Glass futures showed an overall weakening trend, with a decline after the contract switch and a subsequent rebound due to real - estate rumors [7]. - Market Outlook: For soda ash, domestic production and operating rates increased this week, and although profits declined and future production is expected to fall, the short - term supply is still abundant. The demand from the glass industry is weak, and the inventory of soda ash enterprises increased. For glass, the supply is at a low level, real - estate demand is poor, and downstream deep - processing orders increased slightly. With an approaching interest - rate cut, the market may start restocking [7]. - Strategy Recommendation: Trade SA2601 in the 1340 - 1450 range with a stop - loss of 1280 - 1480, and operate FG2601 in the 1140 - 1230 range with a stop - loss of 1100 - 1250 [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Prices: This week, both soda ash and glass futures prices closed down [9]. - Spot Prices and Basis: Soda ash spot prices rose, and the basis strengthened, but the recovery was not significant. As of August 14, 2025, the mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash in the Shahe market was 1285 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 55 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 115 yuan/ton. Glass futures weakened during the contract transfer, and the basis fluctuated greatly and was not currently reliable. As of August 14, 2025, the price of 5.0mm large - panel glass in the Shahe market was 1088 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 132 yuan/ton [14][18][21]. - Price Spread: The price spread between soda ash and glass weakened this week and is expected to strengthen next week. As of August 14, 2025, the glass - soda ash price spread was 180 yuan/ton [23][25]. 3.3 Industry Chain Analysis - Soda Ash Production: The domestic soda ash operating rate and production increased this week, but due to decreased profits, the operating rate is expected to decline next week. As of August 14, 2025, the national soda ash operating rate was 87.13%, a week - on - week increase of 1.07%, and the weekly production was 76.14 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.23% [26][31]. - Enterprise Profits: This week, the profits of domestic soda ash and glass enterprises declined, mainly due to falling spot prices and rising costs. As of August 14, 2025, the theoretical profit of dual - ton soda ash using the combined - soda process was 7 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 63 yuan/ton; the theoretical profit of ammonia - soda process soda ash was - 18 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 58 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 171.36 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 13.97%; using coal - gas as fuel was 92.01 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 17.06%; using petroleum coke as fuel was 87.71 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 32.83% [33][36]. - Glass Production: The number of cold - repaired glass production lines did not change, and the overall production remained the same. As of August 14, 2025, there were 296 glass production lines (excluding zombie lines), 223 in operation, and 73 cold - repaired. The national float glass production was 111.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0%, and it is expected to remain low next week [38][43]. - Photovoltaic Glass: The operating rate, capacity utilization, and daily melting volume of domestic photovoltaic glass increased this week and are expected to rise slightly next week. As of August 14, 2025, the capacity utilization of photovoltaic glass enterprises was 68.06%, a week - on - week increase of 1.94%, and the daily melting volume was 88,180 tons/day, a week - on - week increase of 1,680 tons/day [45][47]. - Enterprise Inventory: The inventory of domestic soda ash and glass enterprises increased this week. As of August 14, 2025, the inventory of soda ash enterprises was 189.38 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.87%, and the total glass inventory was 63.426 million weight cases, a week - on - week increase of 2.55% [49][53]. - Downstream Demand: The deep - processing orders of domestic glass downstream increased slightly, but the demand remained low. As of July 31, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.55 days [55][57].