中国宏观数据点评：7月实体经济数据走弱

Economic Performance - In July, China's retail sales growth declined to 3.7% year-on-year, down from 4.8% in June and below the market expectation of 4.6%[2] - Fixed asset investment growth fell significantly by 1.2 percentage points to 1.6%, much lower than the expected 2.7%[3] - Industrial production growth decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 5.7%, also below the market expectation of 6.0%[5] Sector-Specific Insights - Real estate development investment fell by 12.0% year-on-year in July, worsening from a decline of 11.2% in June[3] - Retail sales of automobiles dropped by 1.5% in July, contrasting with a growth of 4.6% in June[2] - The manufacturing investment growth rate decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 6.2%[7] Policy and Future Outlook - The government is expected to introduce additional fiscal support of 0.5-1 trillion yuan by the end of September to bolster economic recovery[1] - Recent policies include a nationwide childcare subsidy starting in 2025, which is projected to directly aid consumption[10] - The central bank may implement a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 10-20 basis point interest rate cut by the end of September[14]