Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-15 09:35Report Overview - The report is a weekly market report on the urea market, released by Ruida Futures Research Institute on August 15, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The domestic urea market showed a weak downward trend this week. With some plant restarts, the daily output of urea increased slightly. Domestic agricultural demand is in a seasonal off - peak, and industrial demand is tepid. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises continued to rise, and it is expected to keep increasing in the short term. The report suggests trading the UR2601 contract in the range of 1700 - 1770 yuan [6][7] Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy Recommendation: Trade the UR2601 contract in the 1700 - 1770 yuan range [6] - Market Review: The domestic urea market declined weakly this week. As of Thursday, the mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong dropped to 1680 - 1730 yuan/ton, with the average price down 55 yuan/ton week - on - week [7] - Market Outlook: Some plants restarted, increasing the daily output of urea. Next week, 1 - 2 enterprises are planned to stop production while 3 - 5 are expected to resume. Considering potential short - term breakdowns, output is likely to increase. Agricultural demand is in a seasonal off - peak, and industrial demand from compound fertilizer enterprises is limited. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises continued to rise and is expected to keep rising in the short term [7] 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - Price Movement: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea futures fluctuated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 0.8% [11] - Inter - delivery Spread: As of August 15, the UR 9 - 1 spread was - 16 [15] - Position Analysis: Not elaborated in the summary part - Warehouse Receipts: As of August 15, there were 3573 warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou urea, an increase of 200 from last week [23] Spot Market - Domestic Price: As of August 14, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1720 yuan/ton (down 60 yuan), and in Jiangsu was 1730 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan) [28] - Foreign Price: As of August 14, the FOB price of urea in China was 460 US dollars/ton, an increase of 50 US dollars/ton from last week [32] - Basis: As of August 14, the urea basis was - 6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week [35] 3. Industry Chain Analysis Upstream - Coal and Gas Prices: As of August 13, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 670 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of August 14, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 2.85 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.15 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [39] Industry - Capacity Utilization and Output: As of August 14, the output of Chinese urea producers was 134.86 million tons, an increase of 2.01 million tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 1.51%. The capacity utilization rate was 83.22%, an increase of 1.24% from the previous period [42] - Inventory: As of August 14, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 46.4 million tons, a decrease of 1.9 million tons week - on - week, a decline of 3.93%. As of August 13, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 95.74 million tons, an increase of 6.98 million tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 7.86% [45] - Export: In June 2025, urea exports were 66,240.55 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2618.13%. The average export price was 366.28 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 4662.05% [48] Downstream - Compound Fertilizer and Melamine: As of August 14, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 43.48%, a week - on - week increase of 1.98 percentage points. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 49.82%, a decrease of 11.28 percentage points from last week [51]