促消费政策频出，美国降息预期多波折

Domestic Policies - The US-China trade talks resulted in a 90-day suspension of a 24% tariff on each other's goods, effective August 12, 2025[6] - A personal consumption loan subsidy policy was introduced, offering a 1% annual interest subsidy for loans used for consumption from September 1, 2025, to August 31, 2026[8] - A service industry loan subsidy policy was also announced, providing a 1% annual interest subsidy for loans to eight specified service sectors, with a maximum loan amount of 1 million yuan per entity[11] Economic Indicators - China's final consumption expenditure contributed 52.0% to economic growth in the first half of 2025, up 0.3 percentage points from the first quarter[10] - In July, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 2.8%, while the core CPI increased by 3.1%, exceeding expectations[19] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in the US for July recorded a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, surpassing market expectations of 2.9%[19] Market Trends - Brent crude oil prices fell by 2.05% week-on-week, while iron ore prices rose by 0.11% and copper prices increased by 0.95%[23] - Real estate sales in 30 major cities increased by 2.12% week-on-week, with first-tier cities seeing a 2.82% rise[33] - The average daily retail sales of passenger cars in the first week of August decreased by 4% year-on-year, despite a 6% increase compared to the previous month[33] Future Outlook - The upcoming focus includes the US NAHB housing market index and new housing starts data, as well as the Jackson Hole global central bank conference later in August[2] - The market anticipates a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, driven by recent economic data and inflation trends[21]