铂钯现货产业链和基础知识介绍

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The listing of platinum and palladium futures and options meets the hard - demand of China's platinum and palladium industry, and is significant for the futures market to serve China's green development strategy and improve the global pricing mechanism of platinum and palladium [2]. - The price curves of platinum and palladium reflect the comprehensive game of automobile technology iteration, supply shocks, and macro - sentiment. The future price difference between them depends on fuel cell penetration, mine supply recovery speed, and the expansion rhythm of the recycling system [66][71]. - Gold acts as a "ballast stone" in asset allocation, while platinum is a high - elasticity gaming chip for the automotive industry and hydrogen economy [74]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Platinum and Palladium Concept and Industry Chain Overview - Concept and Characteristics - Platinum is a silver - white, high - density, ductile, and chemically stable precious metal with high melting and boiling points, excellent catalytic performance, and strong corrosion resistance. It is used in electronics, automotive catalysts, jewelry, etc. [6][10] - Palladium is also a platinum - group metal, with lower density than platinum, excellent ductility, and chemical stability. It has unique strong hydrogen - absorption ability and is mainly used in automotive catalysts (especially for gasoline vehicles), electronics, etc. [11][14] - Industry Chain Characteristics - Supply: Platinum has an Russia - South Africa duopoly supply pattern, while palladium is dominated by South Africa. Platinum mining has high costs due to deep - mining, while palladium is a by - product of nickel mining with lower costs [20]. - Demand: Platinum has rigid jewelry demand in the Asian market, so its demand elasticity is low. Palladium has no substitutes in automotive catalysts, so its demand elasticity is high [20]. - Pain Points: The industry chain faces problems such as single - origin supply risk, low demand elasticity for platinum in jewelry, and high demand elasticity and low secondary - supply recovery rate for palladium [20]. - Industry Chain Structure - Upstream: It is mainly the supply of primary minerals from South Africa, Russia, etc. The key challenges include high - cost mining, ESG risks, and geopolitical issues [23]. - Mid - stream: It involves refining and processing, using complex hydrometallurgy. Core participants include mining giants' refineries, professional refiners, traders, and banks [25]. - Downstream: It is the manufacturing and distribution of products, with applications in automotive catalysts, jewelry, MLCCs, etc. Key manufacturers come from different industries [27]. - Recycling: Secondary supply mainly comes from waste automotive catalysts, electronic waste, etc., accounting for about 25% of platinum supply and 30% of palladium supply [34]. 2. Platinum and Palladium Supply - Demand Conditions - Supply - side Factors - Mineral Supply: It is highly concentrated in South Africa and Russia. Supply is affected by factors such as the COVID - 19 pandemic, power crises, and geopolitical issues, leading to significant fluctuations [37]. - Recycling Supply: It accounts for an increasing proportion, buffering supply - side fluctuations. However, the recycling volume is affected by precious - metal price fluctuations [38]. - Demand - side Factors - Automotive Catalysts: Palladium is the core material for gasoline - vehicle exhaust catalysts, accounting for 84% of global palladium demand in 2023. Platinum is mainly used in diesel - vehicle catalysts, with a 45% demand share in 2023. There is a substitution effect between them, but short - term substitution is limited [42]. - Industrial and Investment Demand: China is the largest platinum - demand country, using it for jewelry, chemical catalysts, and the hydrogen - energy industry. Europe is the largest palladium - demand country, with strong demand in the automotive industry. Emerging fields such as hydrogen fuel cells and 5G electronics are long - term demand growth points [43]. - Inventory - side Factors - Global platinum and palladium reserves have shown a trend of "first decline, then rise, and then stability" in the past 30 years. The sharp increase in 2024 is due to resource re - evaluation and large - scale resource upgrades in South Africa and Zimbabwe [48]. - Import - Export Factors - China's platinum - group metal resources are scarce, and the industry depends on imports. Import and export are affected by geopolitical, policy, and production - capacity factors. China encourages recycling technology R & D and hydrogen - energy industry investment to reduce import risks [51]. - Seasonal Patterns: Platinum imports peak from November to January and in September - October, and are low in February. Palladium imports peak from December to February and may have small peaks in July - August [54]. 3. Platinum and Palladium Spot and Futures Market Prices - Futures Market Prices - From 2011 to 2025, the futures prices of platinum and palladium can be divided into three stages. The price difference between them is mainly affected by automotive technology changes, supply - demand imbalances, and economic expectations [66]. - Spot Market Prices - From 2007 to 2025, the spot prices of platinum and palladium can also be divided into three stages. The price difference is mainly due to the "technology change" in automotive catalysts and the development of the recycling system [70]. - Platinum - Gold Price Comparison - In terms of price, gold is rarely surpassed by platinum. In terms of trend rhythm, gold shows a "step - by - step slow - bull" trend, while platinum has large fluctuations. In terms of divergence, the gold - platinum price ratio has reached a historical extreme, reflecting the dual discount of platinum [73][74]. 4. Platinum and Palladium Futures and Options Introduction - Futures Contracts - Platinum and palladium futures contracts have a trading unit of 1000 grams/hand, a minimum price change of 0.05 yuan/gram, a daily price limit of 4%, and a minimum margin of 5%. They use physical delivery, and the delivery months are February, April, June, August, October, and December [78]. - Options Contracts - Platinum and palladium options contracts are based on their respective futures contracts. They have a trading unit of 1 hand (1000 grams) of the underlying futures contract, a minimum price change of 0.05 yuan/gram, and an American - style exercise method [100].