下游需求支撑不足

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The macro - environment shows the US dollar oscillating at a low level, which boosts non - ferrous metals. However, the copper market's fundamental demand is weak, failing to support a market rebound. Currently, copper prices remain in a narrow - range fluctuation, awaiting market drivers. The downstream demand is insufficiently supported, with high - temperature and rainy weather affecting downstream terminal demand, and the real - estate sector dragging down the market, while the power grid performs well. Although there is no significant inventory build - up in the SHFE after the copper tariff implementation, overall demand remains tepid [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Strategy Analysis - Macro Data: The US July producer price index (PPI) had a 0.9% month - on - month increase, the largest in three years, and a 3.3% year - on - year increase, both exceeding market expectations [1]. - Supply: The Indonesian smelter's maintenance was extended to mid - August. In July, China imported 2.56 million tons of copper concentrates and ores, a year - on - year increase of 18.24% and a month - on - month increase of 8.94%. As of August 8, the TC/RC fees continued to stabilize and rebound. There is no sign of a decline in copper production, and the smelter's production enthusiasm is fair. Only one smelter has a maintenance plan in August [1]. - Demand: High - temperature and rainy weather has led to weak downstream terminal demand. Rising copper prices have dampened downstream purchasing sentiment. The power grid performs well, but the real - estate sector is a drag. There is no significant inventory build - up in the SHFE after the copper tariff implementation, which supports domestic copper prices to some extent [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures opened low, rose during the day, and faced pressure. The closing price was 79,060 yuan/ton. The long positions of the top 20 increased by 2,322 to 101,223 lots, and the short positions increased by 10 to 100,094 lots [5]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 180 yuan/ton, and in South China was 25 yuan/ton. On August 14, 2025, the LME official price was $9,751/ton, with a spot premium of - $85.5/ton [5]. Supply - side As of August 8, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $37.98/tonne dry, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 3.79 cents/pound [7]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 24,600 tons, an increase of 126 tons from the previous period. As of August 14, Shanghai Free Trade Zone copper inventory was 80,700 tons, an increase of 4,500 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 155,800 tons, a slight decrease of 50 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 266,800 short tons, an increase of 9 short tons from the previous period [10].