宏观经济宏观月报：短期波动不改内需韧性基础，政策发力将引领经济回升-20250815

Economic Growth Data - In July, the industrial added value above designated size grew by 5.7% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from June[1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 38,780 billion yuan in July, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, down 1.1 percentage points from June[1] - From January to July, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 288,229 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.6%, down 1.2 percentage points from the first half of the year[1] - The unemployment rate in urban areas was 5.2% in July, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[1] Economic Challenges - The GDP growth rate for July was approximately 4.3%, a significant drop of 0.9 percentage points from June, falling below the annual growth target[2] - The construction sector contributed a drag of about 0.5 percentage points to the GDP growth, while the industrial sector contributed a drag of 0.3 percentage points[2] - Extreme weather conditions, including high temperatures and heavy rainfall, negatively impacted construction activities, leading to decreased efficiency and project delays[15] Policy Implications - Despite short-term fluctuations, domestic demand shows resilience, providing a foundation for future economic stabilization[3] - The government is expected to enhance efforts to stimulate domestic demand, particularly in boosting consumption and infrastructure investment[4] - The real estate policy is anticipated to continue optimizing around "risk prevention, ensuring delivery, and stabilizing expectations" to support economic recovery[4]