宏源棉花周报：等待调整-20250815

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The short - term increase in cotton prices is significant, and it is advisable to wait for an adjustment. The market is currently in a state where supply and demand are both increasing, and news stimuli are needed to break the balance [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Market Performance - Last week, both domestic and international cotton prices fluctuated upwards, basically recovering the losses at the end of July. ICE cotton rebounded significantly after the USDA's August supply - demand report lowered the US cotton production and inventory. Zhengzhou cotton also rose after the 90 - day extension of the US - China tariff exemption period [4][5][9]. - The 1 - 5 spread of cotton futures first consolidated and then tended to strengthen. The futures price rebounded rapidly, and the basis weakened significantly [11][12][15]. Supply and Demand Analysis - In the August supply - demand report, the USDA predicted a global cotton supply - demand imbalance. The US cotton production was significantly lowered, while China's cotton production was raised as expected. The consumption in China and India showed an increase - decrease pattern, and the global cotton supply - demand was on the verge of balance [19]. - As of August 7, 2025, the national new cotton picking, processing, and sales rates were at high levels. The sales rate was 97.7%, an increase of 6.7 percentage points year - on - year and 8.4 percentage points compared to the average of the past four years [21][22]. - In June 2025, China's cotton import volume was 27,820 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22.42% and a year - on - year decrease of 82.09%. The "rush to export" behavior in the textile and garment industry from April to June overdrew some orders, reducing the cotton import demand [23][24]. - In June 2025, China's cotton yarn import volume was about 109,000 tons. Although it ended the three - month consecutive month - on - month decline, the annual import demand was still in a contraction channel, with the cumulative import volume from January to June decreasing by 13.61% year - on - year [26][27]. Industry Operation - In July 2025, the cloth production was 2.7 billion meters, a year - on - year increase of 6.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.5%. It is expected that the production from July to August will remain weak, and the month - on - month decline may expand to 3% - 5% [32]. - In June 2025, textile exports were 12.048 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%. Clothing exports were 15.267 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. The retail sales of domestic clothing in June increased by 2.8% year - on - year [34][35][39]. Inventory and Operation of Enterprises - In July 2025, China's cotton commercial inventory was at a four - year low, while the industrial inventory was increasing. The commercial inventory was 2.1898 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 588,400 tons, and the industrial inventory was 898,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 91,400 tons [41][42]. - Spinning mills mainly digested cotton inventory, and the cotton yarn inventory decreased for two consecutive weeks. The opening rate of Chinese cotton spinning mills began to pick up, while the opening rates of Vietnamese and Indian spinning mills were at low levels [44][46][47]. - The spinning profit of domestic spinning mills was stable. The cotton yarn inventory of grey fabric mills continued to replenish, and the inventory of imported yarn at ports rebounded [56][57][59]. Fund Position By August 5, the fund's cotton position was a net short position of 55,882 lots, indicating that the fund continued to increase short positions before the USDA report [64].