7月份经济数据解读：积极因素逐步累积，结构性问题仍然明显

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Positive factors for the economy are gradually accumulating, but structural issues remain evident. The full - year economic growth rate is likely to be high in the first half and low in the second half, yet the 5% annual target is achievable, and the momentum of high - quality economic development is expected to be further consolidated [6]. - Although the macro - economic data in July did not show an obvious turning point, positive factors are gradually piling up, which is conducive to the improvement of market risk appetite. Different investment suggestions are given for the equity, bond, and commodity markets [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. 7 - month Economic Overview - Positive factors for the economy are increasing, including the potential repair of the household balance sheet, high - intensity government spending, increased capital activation, marginal improvement in prices, accelerated transformation of new and old drivers, and the likely passing of the period of greatest tariff disturbances [7]. - Some economic indicators need improvement, such as the continuous drag of the real estate sector, uncertainties in overseas demand, the need to consolidate endogenous economic momentum, and the obvious divergence between volume and price with profit growth yet to improve [8]. 2. Interpretation of 7 - month Economic Sub - item Data - Fixed - asset investment growth continued to decline. From January to July, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 1.6% year - on - year, with infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate development investment showing different trends. High - tech investment remained prosperous [9]. - Consumption growth declined slightly. In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year - on - year, with the growth rate falling by 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous value. The replacement of consumer goods provided some support [10]. - Exports still showed short - term resilience, but uncertainties were increasing. In July, China's export amount increased by 7.2% year - on - year in US dollars. However, the "export - rush" effect may lead to an "overdraft effect" in the second half of the year [11]. - Real estate sales continued to fluctuate at a low level. From January to July, the cumulative year - on - year decline in the sales area of commercial housing and the completion of real estate development investment both widened. Second - hand housing prices did not stop falling [12]. - The production side remained highly prosperous. In July, the value - added of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year in real terms. Manufacturing was the core support, and new and old drivers were accelerating the transformation [13]. - There were marginal improvements in the July price data. The CPI was flat year - on - year and increased by 0.4% month - on - month. The PPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing [15][16]. - The structure of social financing remained poor. In July, the incremental social financing was 1.13 trillion yuan, with government bonds being the core support. The new RMB loans in the social financing caliber decreased, and the effective credit demand of residents and enterprises still needed improvement [17]. - The profit growth of industrial enterprises was significantly dragged down by prices. From January to June, the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size decreased by 1.8%, contrasting with the 5.3% real GDP growth in the first half of the year [19]. 3. Future Economic Outlook - Policy - making will reasonably control the intensity and rhythm of policies and reserve some policy space. The necessity of introducing large - scale incremental policies in the second half of the year has decreased [20]. - The full - year economic growth rate is likely to be high in the first half and low in the second half. Investment may continue to decline at a low level, consumption still has some resilience, and exports need to be vigilant against the impact of tariffs and the "export - overdraft" effect [21]. 4. Investment Suggestions - Equity market: Maintain the view that the index will fluctuate strongly, the investment error - tolerance rate will increase, and actively participate in the A - share market. Focus on low - absorption rotation opportunities in high - prosperity sectors, such as the "anti - involution" direction, the Fed rate - cut direction, sectors with expected mid - year report outperformance, and the technology and self - controllable direction [22][23]. - Bond market: The macro - economic fundamentals do not currently support a bond - market reversal. The yield of 10 - year government bonds may fluctuate around 1.7%, waiting for clearer signals from the economic fundamentals and policies [24]. - Commodity market: The prices of relevant "anti - involution" varieties will enter a wide - range shock trend until the economic fundamentals give clear feedback signals [25].