“反内卷”及近期经济专题深度报告：积极因素逐步积累，筑牢A股向好的根基

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - "Anti - involution" will alleviate the dilemma of "increasing revenue without increasing profit", with a greater boost to PPI than CPI, and promote the nominal GDP growth rate to approach the real GDP growth rate [5][21]. - The US economy shows signs of weakness, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is rising, with an expected cumulative rate cut of 75bp in 2025 [5][83]. - China's economic growth rate in 2025 may be high in the first half and low in the second half, but it can achieve the 5% target for the whole year [5]. - The A - share market still has a certain degree of sustainability, and the bond market is likely to fluctuate narrowly, while the commodity market will enter a wide - range shock trend [5]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1 "Anti - involution": Alleviate the Dilemma of "Increasing Revenue without Increasing Profit" and Improve Market Performance Expectations - Overview: "Anti - involution" aims to promote the economy to return from "scale expansion" to "high - quality growth", improve social overall efficiency, and is a key part of building a unified national market [10][11]. - Approach: Different from the previous supply - side reform, it focuses on downstream emerging industries, mainly private enterprises, with more moderate and gradual policies using market - based and legal means [18][19]. - Impact: It is expected to have a greater impact on PPI than CPI, and promote the nominal GDP growth rate to approach the real GDP growth rate, but there is uncertainty in the transmission of price increases from upstream to downstream [21][24]. - Style: From April to September, the market pays more attention to performance, and the "anti - involution" direction has performance release expectations [28]. - Law: It may be a key factor supporting the strength of the A - share market, and the current "anti - involution" market is in the policy - expectation stage [32][36]. - Summary: It can alleviate the dilemma of "increasing revenue without increasing profit" and improve market performance expectations [46]. 2 Global: The US Economy Shows Signs of Weakness, and the Fed's Interest Rate Cut Expectation is Rising - Overseas Tariffs: The US average effective tariff rate has reached the highest level since 1933, reducing global economic growth potential, and tariffs remain a key variable affecting China's exports [49]. - Overseas Economy: The global economy has short - term resilience, but the US economy shows signs of weakness in investment, and the Fed has lowered its economic growth forecast [55][60][66]. - Overseas Inflation: The short - term impact of tariffs on US inflation is emerging, and the medium - term inflation trend still faces great uncertainty [69][73]. - Overseas Liquidity: The inflection point of non - farm data may have arrived, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is rising, with an expected 75bp rate cut in 2025 [77][83]. - Summary: The global economy has short - term resilience but increasing uncertainty, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is rising [83]. 3 China: The Economic Growth Rate May be High in the First Half and Low in the Second Half, and the Spontaneous Recovery Momentum Needs to be Consolidated - Economic Overview: China's economic growth rate in 2025 may be high in the first half and low in the second half, with the GDP growth rate in Q3 and Q4 expected to decline compared with Q1 and Q2 [84]. - Investment End: The growth rate of fixed - asset investment continues to bottom out, and real estate investment is still the main drag [85]. - Consumption End: Consumption data still has resilience, and service consumption may be the key area of development [27]. - Export End: Attention should be paid to the impact of tariffs and export over - draw effects [5][28]. - Liquidity: The government sector is still the main force for increasing leverage, and the time for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts is expected to be postponed [28]. - Summary: The annual economic growth rate is likely to be high in the first half and low in the second half [29]. 4 Market Strategy: Positive Factors are Gradually Accumulating to Strengthen the Foundation for the A - share Market to Improve - General Trend Judgment: The subsequent market is expected to have a certain degree of sustainability [30]. - Policy Trends: The economic policy in the second half of the year is expected to maintain its stance and act appropriately [32]. - Allocation Framework: Gradually increase the allocation of stock assets [33]. - Investment Advice: The equity index will run strongly, the bond market may fluctuate narrowly, and the commodity market will enter a wide - range shock trend [5][33].