Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-15 10:21Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - A-share major indices rose significantly this week, with the ChiNext Index and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index up over 5%. The four stock index futures also increased collectively, with small and medium-cap stocks outperforming large-cap blue-chip stocks. In terms of gains, IM > IC > IF > IH. The market trading activity increased significantly compared with last week, with the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeding two trillion yuan for three consecutive trading days, and the trading amount of northbound funds exceeding one trillion yuan for four consecutive weeks. Although some economic data weakened in July, it did not have much negative impact on the market. The market is currently focused on the semi-annual reports of listed companies, and the net profit growth rates of the four broad-based indices are all positive. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position in the medium and long term [8][104] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Futures: IF2509 rose 3.09% this week, IH2509 rose 2.19%, IC2509 rose 4.88%, and IM2509 rose 5.21%. - Spot: The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose 2.37%, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index rose 1.57%, the China Securities 500 Index rose 3.88%, and the China Securities 1000 Index rose 4.09% [11] 2. News Overview - CPI: In July, the CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month, turning from a decline of 0.1% last month, and was flat year-on-year. The core CPI excluding food and energy prices rose 0.8% year-on-year, with the increase expanding for three consecutive months. - PPI: In July, the PPI fell 0.2% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points from last month, and fell 3.6% year-on-year, the same as last month. - Social financing scale: In the first seven months of this year, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year; RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan. At the end of July, M2 increased 8.8% year-on-year, M1 increased 5.6%, and the stock of social financing scale increased 9%. - Fixed asset investment: From January to July 2025, the national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 28822.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%. Among them, private fixed asset investment decreased 1.5% year-on-year. From a month-on-month perspective, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased 0.63% in July. From January to July, national real estate development investment was 5358 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.0%. - Social consumer goods retail: In July, the total retail sales of social consumer goods were 3878 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%; from January to July, the total retail sales of social consumer goods were 28423.8 billion yuan, an increase of 4.8%. - Industrial added value: In July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased 5.7% year-on-year in real terms. From a month-on-month perspective, in July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased 0.38% from the previous month. From January to July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased 6.3% year-on-year [14] 3. Weekly Market Data - Domestic major indices: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.70%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 4.55%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose 5.53%, the SME 100 Index rose 3.11%, and the ChiNext Index rose 8.58%. - Overseas major indices (as of Thursday): The S&P 500 rose 1.24%, the UK FTSE 100 rose 0.90%, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.65%, and the Nikkei 225 rose 3.73%. - Industry sector performance: Most industry sectors rose, with the communication, electronics, and non-bank financial sectors rising significantly, and the banking sector weakening significantly. - Industry sector main fund flow: The main funds in the industry were generally net outflows, with significant net outflows in the machinery equipment, national defense and military industry, and non-ferrous metals sectors. - SHIBOR short-term interest rate: The SHIBOR short-term interest rate was stable, and the capital price was low. - Restricted share lifting and northbound capital: This week, major shareholders had a net reduction of 6.239 billion yuan in the secondary market, and the market value of restricted shares lifted was 233.12 billion yuan. The total trading volume of northbound funds was 1026.01 billion yuan. - Basis and net positions: The basis of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM all converged [18][19][23] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - Market outlook: Although some economic data weakened in July, it did not have much negative impact on the market. The market is currently focused on the semi-annual reports of listed companies, and the net profit growth rates of the four broad-based indices are all positive. However, it is necessary to be vigilant about the drag on the index performance caused by the profit decline of companies that have not released their financial reports. At the same time, in the case of high valuations in the US stock market, A-shares with reasonable valuations continue to attract foreign capital inflows, injecting incremental funds into the market. - Strategy: It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position in the medium and long term [104]