KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-08-15 10:16Investment Rating - The investment rating for JD Group is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - JD Group's Q2 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue of 356.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.4%, surpassing Bloomberg consensus estimates of 335.5 billion yuan [5] - Non-GAAP net profit for Q2 2025 was 7.4 billion yuan, a decline of 49% year-on-year, but also better than the expected 5.35 billion yuan [5] - The company has adjusted its non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 27.7 billion, 46 billion, and 52.6 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of -42%, +66%, and +15% [4] Revenue and Profit Analysis - Revenue from product sales grew by 20.7% year-on-year, with core electronics and home appliances increasing by 23.4% [5] - Service revenue rose by 29.1%, driven by a 21.7% increase in platform and advertising services due to user traffic growth [5] - The retail operating profit margin improved by 0.6 percentage points to 4.5%, while logistics operating profit margin decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 3.8% [5] Business Strategy and Market Position - The company is benefiting from the "trade-in" policy for electronics and home appliances, which has significantly improved core business performance [4] - Continued investment in the food delivery business is expected to enhance user engagement and cross-purchase rates, contributing to long-term growth [6] - JD Group's share buyback program has repurchased approximately 2.8% of its outstanding shares, with a remaining buyback amount of 3.5 billion USD [6] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - For 2025, the projected revenue is 1,313.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 13.3% [7] - The projected diluted EPS for 2025 is 8.7 yuan, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 12.7 times [7] - The gross margin is expected to remain stable around 15.5% for the coming years [7]