Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [2][25]. Core Viewpoints - Fixed asset investment continued to weaken in the first seven months of 2025, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 1.6%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points compared to the first half of the year. Manufacturing investment year-on-year increased by 6.2%, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous period [4][12]. - Infrastructure investment is under pressure, with transportation, water conservancy, and public utility investments showing declining growth rates. Total infrastructure investment (including all sectors) increased by 7.3% year-on-year, down 1.6 percentage points from the first half of the year. Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 3.2%, down 1.4 percentage points [5][6]. - Real estate investment remained low, with a year-on-year decrease of 12.0% in the first seven months of 2025, a decline of 0.8 percentage points compared to the previous period. The number of new starts decreased by 18.3% year-on-year, while completions worsened with a decrease of 16.5% [12][18]. Summary by Sections Fixed Asset Investment - In the first seven months of 2025, fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year increase of 1.6%, with manufacturing investment increasing by 6.2%, indicating a synchronized decline in growth rates [4][6]. Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment faced pressure, with transportation, water conservancy, and public utility sectors experiencing declining growth rates. The year-on-year increase for total infrastructure investment was 7.3%, while investment excluding electricity was 3.2% [5][6]. Real Estate Investment - Real estate investment remained at a low level, with a year-on-year decrease of 12.0% in the first seven months of 2025. The decline in new starts was 18.3%, and completions decreased by 16.5% [12][18]. Investment Analysis Recommendations - The current industry total is weak, but regional investments may gain elasticity as national strategic layouts deepen. Recommended low-valuation state-owned enterprises include China Chemical, China Energy Construction, China Railway, and China Railway Construction. Attention is also drawn to China Power Construction, China Communications Construction, and China Metallurgical Group [18].
2025年1-7月投资数据点评:固投延续走弱态势,基建投资承压
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-08-15 10:16