沪指破前高点评：居民资产切换启幕，牛市空间在望

Market Overview - On August 13, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3683.46 points, surpassing the previous high of 3674.40 points from October 8, 2024, marking a new high since the "924" rally last year[3] - The Wind All A Index broke its previous high on July 21, 2025, indicating that A-shares have already surpassed prior peaks[4] Investment Environment - The current investment landscape shows poor returns in other asset classes such as bonds, cash, gold, and real estate, leading to an "asset shortage" phenomenon among investors[5] - As of August 12, 2025, the average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of major A-share sectors is within the historical 40-65% percentile over the past 15 years, suggesting that valuations are still reasonable[5] Asset Allocation Trends - In 2022, non-financial assets (mainly real estate) accounted for 50.83% of household assets in China, while deposits made up 23.12%, and stock and equity investments accounted for 15.36%[6] - Comparatively, in the U.S. as of 2024, stocks and investment funds represented 37.60% of household assets, while real estate accounted for 27.23%[7] Future Projections - Total household assets in China are projected to reach 666.82 trillion yuan by 2025, with stock and fund assets potentially increasing to 133.36 trillion yuan, assuming a rise to 20% of total assets[8] - The current total market capitalization of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges is 94.91 trillion yuan, indicating room for growth[8] Sector Recommendations - Favorable sectors include artificial intelligence (up 27% in 2025), innovative pharmaceuticals in Hong Kong, and the rare earth industry (up 76.38%)[9][10] - Consider undervalued cyclical sectors such as steel, coal, construction materials, and photovoltaics for potential recovery due to government reforms[10] Risk Factors - Uncertainties in U.S.-China trade negotiations may impact market stability[11] - Economic growth may slow down unexpectedly in the second half of the year, affecting market performance[11]