全球央行年会在即鲍威尔或打压降息预期？

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market showed a weak and volatile trend this week due to the decline in safe - haven demand, the phased achievement of short - term trade agreements, and the upcoming Russia - Ukraine talks. The short - term outlook is still weak and volatile, but in the long - term, the upward trend of precious metals remains due to the increasing risk of economic recession and the "de - dollarization" process [6]. - After the non - farm payrolls data, there are still differences within the Fed. The market's expectation of a September interest rate cut has soared, but it is not certain. Next week, the precious metals market will face a major test at the global central bank annual meeting, and Powell may dampen the market's current aggressive interest rate cut expectations [3][6][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Currency Attribute - Inflation: In July, US wholesale prices jumped, with the PPI rising 0.9% month - on - month, the largest monthly increase in three years. The July CPI inflation was moderate, but the core CPI increased by 3.1% year - on - year, higher than the previous value of 2.9% [3][6]. - Interest Rate Expectations: After the non - farm payrolls data, the market's expectation of a Fed interest rate cut in September soared from about 40% to around 90%, and the expected number of interest rate cuts this year increased from 1 to 3. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields faced resistance in their upward movement and returned to a weak trend [3][6]. - Monetary Policy Review: From 2024 to 2025, the Fed's monetary policy experienced multiple adjustments, including interest rate holds, cuts of different magnitudes, and changes in the expected number of interest rate cuts. The Fed's stance has been influenced by factors such as inflation, employment, and economic growth [11][12][13]. 2. Safe - Haven Attribute - Trump's trade war has entered a new stage, with the US - China tariff truce extended by 90 days. Geopolitical tensions have eased, and the "Trump - Putin meeting" is imminent, with Trump indicating that the US and Russia are "very close" to reaching an agreement [7][8]. 3. Commodity Attribute - Gold: Although gold jewelry consumption is suppressed by high prices, the investment demand for gold bars and other forms has offset some of the impact. Central banks in emerging markets, including the People's Bank of China, are implementing a "de - dollarization" strategy, which keeps the central bank's gold - buying demand at a high level [4]. - Silver: The World Silver Association expects that due to a 1% decline in demand and a 2% increase in total supply, the global silver supply - demand gap in 2025 will narrow by 21% to 117.6 million ounces (about 3,658 tons) [4]. 4. Capital Flow - Recently, the net long positions of CFTC managed funds in gold increased while those in silver decreased. Domestic Shanghai gold futures companies have continuously reduced their net long positions at a high level, and Shanghai silver has slightly reduced its net long positions at a low level. The world's largest gold and silver ETFs have ended their long - term downward trends and are slowly increasing their positions [4]. 5. Future Investment Logic and Strategy - Investment Logic: In the short - term, the precious metals market is weak and volatile. In the medium - term, it will fluctuate at a high level, and in the long - term, it will show a step - by - step upward trend. The risk of economic recession in the long - term may force the Fed to cut interest rates, and the "de - dollarization" process will support the upward trend of precious metals [6]. - Strategy: Short - term: weak and volatile; Medium - term: high - level volatility; Long - term: step - by - step upward. The support and resistance levels for Shanghai gold futures are 760 - 765 and 790 - 795 respectively, and for Shanghai silver futures are 9000 - 9030 and 9400 - 9430 respectively [6].