原油周度报告-20250815

Report Summary - The crude oil price continued its weak trend this week, showing an overall oscillating and weak pattern. The market is waiting for the results of the meeting between the US and Russian presidents. If the US relaxes sanctions on Russia's energy sector, it will strengthen the expectation of global crude oil supply surplus. Additionally, the unexpected inventory build - up in US API and EIA crude oil indicates a fading of the consumption peak season in the third quarter. With the gradual increase in crude oil supply in the fourth quarter and the weakening consumption expectation on the demand side, the pressure of crude oil supply surplus will increase. In the short term, geopolitical risks dominate market fluctuations, and the market focuses on the meeting between the US and Russian presidents. Oil prices may continue the weak trend, and the shale oil cost provides support, with limited downside space. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of WTI crude oil at $60 per barrel [7][51]. - The trading strategy suggests paying attention to the $60 - $65 per barrel range of WTI crude oil prices [8]. Multi - Empty Focus Bullish Factors - Geopolitical risks and the fact that the actual increase in OPEC+ production is lower than the plan [11]. Bearish Factors - Weakening support on the demand side and the potential easing of US - Russia relations [11]. Macroeconomic Analysis US - Russia Presidential Meeting - Trump announced on August 8 that he would meet with Russian President Putin on August 15 in Anchorage, Alaska, USA, which was further confirmed by Ushakov on August 9. The meeting will start at 22:30 Moscow time (03:30 Beijing time on the 16th). Trump said the risk of the meeting failing was 25%, and he would impose sanctions if problems were not resolved. Putin said the US government is making positive efforts. The market has fully priced in the meeting, and if no agreement is reached, oil prices may rebound; if an agreement is reached, it may lead to a phased rebound or further suppression of oil prices depending on the situation [12]. CPI and PPI Data - In July, the US CPI was in line with expectations overall, with a year - on - year increase of 2.7% and a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. Core CPI was slightly higher than expected. After the CPI release, traders increased their bets on a Fed rate cut in September, with a 95% probability. The July PPI was higher than expected, with a month - on - month increase of 0.9% and a year - on - year increase of 3.3% [16]. Energy Outlook of Three Major Energy Agencies - OPEC maintained the forecast of this year's crude oil demand growth and raised the forecast for next year, expecting a 138 - million - barrel - per - day increase in global oil demand in 2026. IEA raised the forecast of global oil supply growth and lowered the forecast of demand growth for 2025 and 2026. EIA lowered the oil price forecast for this year and next year and expected a tightening of the US crude oil market [17]. Data Analysis Supply - OPEC's oil production in July increased by 263,000 barrels per day to 27.54 million barrels per day, mainly contributed by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, but still lower than the production increase plan [18]. - As of the week ending August 8, US domestic crude oil production increased by 43,000 barrels per day to 13.327 million barrels per day, and it is expected to maintain a low - level operation due to profit pressure [20]. - As of the week ending August 8, the total number of US oil rigs was 411, an increase of 1 from the previous period. It has been on a downward trend since April, and is expected to remain at a low level [22]. Demand - As of the week ending August 8, US crude oil implied demand increased by 134,000 barrels per day, while gasoline implied demand decreased by 161,300 barrels per day. The US refinery utilization rate was 96.4%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous period, with limited room for further increase [28][29]. - As of August 14, the operating rate of China's major refineries was 82.65%, up 0.26 percentage points, and that of local refineries was 56.55%, up 0.36 percentage points. Major refineries still have room to increase production, and local refineries are expected to enter a production - climbing cycle in early September [34]. - As of August 15, the comprehensive refining profit of China's major refineries was 832.6 yuan per ton, down 106.23 yuan per ton, while that of local refineries was 367.21 yuan per ton, up 136.31 yuan per ton [38]. Inventory - As of the week ending August 8, US EIA crude oil inventory increased by 3.036 million barrels, and strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 226,000 barrels. Cushing crude oil inventory increased slightly, and gasoline inventory decreased by 7.92 million barrels [43][47]. Crack Spread - As of August 13, the US crude oil crack spread was $20.89 per barrel, up from the previous week, indicating a recovery in US refined oil consumption [48]. Market Outlook - This week, crude oil prices continued the weak trend. In the short term, geopolitical risks dominate market fluctuations. If the meeting results meet market expectations, oil prices may continue to be weak, with limited downside space due to shale oil cost support. If the results exceed market expectations, it will indicate the next - stage trend of oil prices [51].