有色日报：有色午后走强-20250815

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - 沪铜: The main contract price of Shanghai copper increased with rising positions and stood above the 79,000 mark again. In July, the added - value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year and 0.38% month - on - month. From January to July, it increased by 6.3% year - on - year. The weakening of the US dollar index may support copper prices. The copper price shows a pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas, and the import window is open. Technically, pay attention to the support at the 79,000 mark [4]. - 沪铝: Shanghai aluminum maintained a volatile trend with the open interest rising to 600,000 contracts. The upstream bauxite continued to accumulate inventory, the intermediate electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased, and the downstream demand is expected to pick up. With neutral macro and positive industry factors, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly [5]. - 沪镍: Shanghai nickel showed a weak and volatile trend with the open interest rising to 200,000 contracts. The main contract price approached the 120,000 mark. The continuous increase in nickel ore port inventory exerts pressure on nickel prices. With neutral macro and weak industry support, pay attention to the technical support at the 120,000 mark [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - Copper: On August 15th, the average spot premium in Shandong region reported a discount of 140 yuan/ton. Downstream processing enterprises continued the rigid - demand procurement mode, and the terminal demand did not improve significantly, with the market activity remaining flat [8]. - Aluminum: As of August 15th, the total bauxite inventory in 9 domestic ports reached 23.85 million tons, an increase of 960,000 tons from the previous week. On August 14th, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 517,000 tons, a decrease of 32,000 tons from the 7th and 54,000 tons from the 11th [9]. - Nickel: On August 15th, the main reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2509 contract. The mainstream premium for Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,300 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,750 yuan/ton; for Russian nickel, it was +450 yuan/ton, with a price of 120,900 yuan/ton; for Norwegian nickel, it was +3,200 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,650 yuan/ton; and for nickel beans, it was +2,550 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,000 yuan/ton [9]. 2. Related Charts - Copper: The report provides charts on copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [10][12][13]. - Aluminum: Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, and alumina inventory [24][25][27]. - Nickel: Charts cover nickel basis, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, nickel monthly spread, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [36][38][40].