热点追踪周报：由创新高个股看市场投资热点（第207期）-20250815

• The report introduces a quantitative model named "250-day new high distance" to track market trends and identify hot sectors. The model calculates the distance of the latest closing price from the highest closing price in the past 250 trading days using the formula: $ 250\text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{\text{Closet}}{\text{ts_max(Close, 250)}} $ where Closet represents the latest closing price, and ts_max(Close, 250) is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days. If the latest closing price reaches a new high, the distance is 0; otherwise, it is a positive value indicating the degree of fallback [11][12][13] - The report evaluates the effectiveness of momentum and trend-following strategies, citing research that stocks near their 52-week highs tend to outperform those far from their highs. It references methodologies from George (2004), William O'Neil's CANSLIM system, and Mark Minervini's "Stock Market Wizard" to emphasize the importance of tracking stocks consistently hitting new highs [11][19][22] - A screening method for "stable new high stocks" is introduced, focusing on stocks with smooth price paths and sustained momentum. The criteria include analyst attention (minimum 5 buy or overweight ratings in the past 3 months), relative price strength (top 20% in 250-day returns), price path smoothness (evaluated by metrics like price displacement ratio), and trend persistence (average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days and past 5 days). The top 50 stocks meeting these criteria are selected [26][29][30] - The report identifies 1480 stocks that hit 250-day new highs in the past 20 trading days. Among them, the mechanical, pharmaceutical, and basic chemical industries have the highest number of new high stocks, while steel, defense, and non-ferrous metals have the highest proportion of new high stocks. By index, the highest proportions are found in CSI 2000 (27.55%), CSI 1000 (23.50%), and CSI 500 (24.60%) [20][21][34] - The report highlights the distribution of stable new high stocks across sectors, with manufacturing and technology leading the count (16 and 15 stocks, respectively). Within manufacturing, the mechanical industry dominates, while electronics lead in the technology sector [30][34] - The quantitative model's backtesting results show that major indices like SSE Composite, SZSE Component, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, ChiNext, and STAR 50 have 250-day new high distances of 0.00%, 0.00%, 1.26%, 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.63%, and 2.27%, respectively. Industry indices such as pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, electronics, and light manufacturing are close to their 250-day highs, while food and beverage, coal, real estate, consumer services, and banking are far from their highs [12][13][33]