Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Copper: Macroeconomic factors show the US PPI rising significantly, while the supply of copper concentrates is increasing, and the demand is weak. The copper price remains in a narrow - range fluctuation, waiting for market drivers [7]. - Lithium Carbonate: Due to the production reduction of CATL, the supply is expected to shrink, and the demand is in a small peak season. The price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [8][9]. - Crude Oil: Entering the end of the seasonal travel peak, the inventory of oil products is increasing. OPEC + plans to increase production in September, and the possibility of a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine is rising. The medium - and long - term downward pressure on crude oil prices is increasing, and the short - term volatility is large [10]. - Asphalt: The supply is increasing, the demand is restricted by funds and weather, and the inventory is at a low level. It is recommended to close short positions temporarily [11][12]. - PP: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and it is about to enter the peak season. It is expected to fluctuate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [13]. - Plastic: The supply is increasing, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory pressure is large. It is expected to fluctuate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [14][15]. - PVC: The supply is increasing, the demand is not improved, and the inventory is high. It is expected to fluctuate downward, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [16]. - Coking Coal: After continuous price increases, the market sentiment cools down, and the price fluctuates at a high level [18]. - Urea: The demand is weak, the supply is expected to decrease, and the inventory is accumulating. The short - term trend is weak consolidation [19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Overview - Price Changes: As of August 15, most domestic futures main contracts declined. Rapeseed meal dropped by over 3%, methanol and rapeseed oil by nearly 2%, and many others by over 1%. Polysilicon rose by over 4%, lithium carbonate by over 2%, and some others by over 1%. Stock index futures generally rose, while most treasury bond futures declined [4]. - Fund Flows: As of 15:07 on August 15, funds flowed into contracts such as CSI 1000 2509 and CSI 500 2509, and flowed out of contracts such as Shanghai Silver 2510 and Shanghai Gold 2510 [4]. Core Commodity Analysis Copper - Macro: The US PPI in July rose significantly, with a month - on - month increase of 0.9% and a year - on - year increase of 3.3%, both exceeding expectations [7]. - Supply: The Indonesian smelter's maintenance was extended, and China's copper concentrate imports in July increased by 18.24% year - on - year and 8.94% month - on - month. The TC/RC fees continued to rise, and the production enthusiasm of smelters was fair [7]. - Demand: Affected by high - temperature and rainy weather, the downstream demand was weak, and the terminal power grid performed well, while the real estate sector was a drag. The inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange did not show a significant increase, supporting the domestic copper price [7]. Lithium Carbonate - Price: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 82,700 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 80,400 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan/ton [8]. - Supply: CATL's mining end in Jianxiawo stopped production on August 10, with no short - term resumption plan. The monthly output of this mine accounted for 9% - 10% of the domestic lithium carbonate output, and the supply was expected to shrink [8]. - Demand: The demand in the power sector recovered with the return of subsidies, and the trading enthusiasm of traders increased [8][9]. Crude Oil - Inventory: The EIA data showed that the inventory of crude oil and diesel increased, and the gasoline inventory decreased slightly [10]. - Supply: OPEC + plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, and the possibility of a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine is rising, increasing the medium - and long - term downward pressure on prices [10]. - Price: Saudi Aramco raised the official selling price of Arab Light crude oil to Asia in September [10]. Asphalt - Supply: The weekly asphalt production rate increased by 1.2 percentage points to 32.9%, and the expected production in August decreased by 5.1% month - on - month and increased by 17.1% year - on - year [11]. - Demand: The downstream production rates mostly increased, but the demand was restricted by funds and weather. The national shipment volume decreased by 11.34% week - on - week [11][12]. - Inventory: The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries increased slightly but remained at a low level in the same period in recent years [12]. PP - Supply: The production rate of PP enterprises decreased to about 83.5%, and the production ratio of standard - grade drawstring decreased to about 28.5%. New capacity is planned to be put into production in August, and the number of maintenance devices has increased slightly [13]. - Demand: The downstream demand was weak, and the new orders were limited. The downstream procurement was mainly for rigid needs, but the production rate of plastic weaving increased slightly [13]. Plastic - Supply: The plastic production rate dropped to about 87%, and new capacity was put into operation. The production rate decreased slightly recently [14][15]. - Demand: The downstream production rate increased slightly, but the agricultural film was still in the off - season, and the new orders decreased. The demand was mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory pressure was large [14][15]. PVC - Supply: The PVC production rate increased to 80.33%, and new capacity was put into production in August, with more planned in the future [16]. - Demand: The downstream production rate decreased slightly, and the demand was not improved. The real estate sector was still in the adjustment stage [16]. - Inventory: The social inventory continued to increase, and the inventory pressure was large [16]. Coking Coal - Price: The price in the Shanxi market remained unchanged, while the price of Mongolian 5 coking coal decreased by 44 yuan/ton [18]. - Supply: The supply data increased, the production of clean coal and raw coal increased, and the inventory of mine clean coal decreased [18]. - Demand: The profit of independent coking enterprises turned positive, the production of downstream coke increased, and the inventory decreased. However, the iron - making water production decreased, and the profitability of steel mills weakened [18]. Urea - Supply: Next week, many urea enterprises will conduct inspections, and the supply is expected to decrease [19]. - Demand: The production rate of compound fertilizer enterprises increased slightly, but the production rate of melamine decreased significantly, dragging down the domestic demand for urea [19]. - Inventory: The factory inventory increased, mainly due to the weak demand after the end of agricultural demand [19].
冠通每日交易策略-20250815
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-08-15 11:26