三大油脂周度报告-20250815

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The prices of the three major domestic edible oils (palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil) have all increased this week. The spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil have risen by 3.92%, 1.65%, and 2.05% respectively. The futures prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil have increased by 5.11%, 1.74%, and 2.05% respectively. [2] - The inventories of the three major edible oils have all increased. As of August 8, 2025, the inventory of rapeseed oil in coastal areas has increased to 110,000 tons; the commercial inventory of palm oil in oil mills has increased to 599,800 tons; the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills has increased to 1,137,700 tons. The total inventory of the three major edible oils has increased to 1,847,500 tons. [10] - In the short - term, the center of gravity of palm oil has risen this week, and it is expected to fluctuate between 9300 - 9700 next week. In the medium - to - long - term, the weekly line of palm oil is currently in the third wave of an uptrend, and the center of gravity may rise, with an expected fluctuation range of 9200 - 9800. [31][32] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Three Major Edible Oil Spot Price Trends - As of August 15, 2025, compared with August 8, 2025, the futures closing prices of palm oil (P2601), rapeseed oil (OI2601), and soybean oil (Y2601) have increased by 460 yuan/ton (5.11%), 196 yuan/ton (2.05%), and 146 yuan/ton (1.74%) respectively. The spot prices of palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil have increased by 356 yuan/ton (3.92%), 198 yuan/ton (2.05%), and 140 yuan/ton (1.65%) respectively. [2] Three Major Edible Oil Basis Changes - As of August 14, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil is 78 yuan/ton (a decrease of 2 yuan/ton from the previous week), 117 yuan/ton (an increase of 13 yuan/ton from the previous week), and 40 yuan/ton (a decrease of 52 yuan/ton from the previous week) respectively. As of August 15, 2025, the YP spread is - 926 yuan/ton (a decrease of 334 yuan/ton from the previous week). [7] Domestic Three Major Edible Oil Inventory Trends - As of August 8, 2025, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas is 110,000 tons (an increase of 3,500 tons from the previous week); the commercial inventory of palm oil in oil mills is 599,800 tons (an increase of 17,600 tons from the previous week); the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills is 1,137,700 tons (an increase of 20,300 tons from the previous week); the total inventory of the three major edible oils is 1,847,500 tons (an increase of 41,400 tons from the previous week). [10] Supply Side of Palm Oil - MPOB palm oil supply - demand data shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of July has increased by 4.02% from the previous month to 2.11 million tons. In May 2025, Indonesia's palm oil ending inventory has decreased by 4.2% to 2.916 million tons. [16] Supply Side of Soybean Oil - As of August 8, 2025, the soybean inventory in national ports is 8.938 million tons (an increase of 701,000 tons from the previous week), the soybean inventory in major national oil mills is 7.1056 million tons (an increase of 549,700 tons from the previous week), and the oil mill operating rate is 60% (an increase of 3% from the previous week). As of August 15, 2025, the soybean crushing profit is - 540.10 yuan/ton (an increase of 121.8 yuan/ton from the previous week). [19] Supply Side of Rapeseed Oil - As of August 8, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 150,000 tons (an increase of 50,000 tons from the previous week). As of August 15, 2025, the imported rapeseed crushing profit is - 2772.40 yuan/ton (a decrease of 3237.8 yuan/ton from the previous week). [22] Demand Side - On August 14, 2025, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil mills is 683 tons, the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil is 7300 tons, and the POGO spread is 459.74 US dollars/ton (an increase of 60.75 US dollars/ton from the previous week). The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 8.65 million tons. [28] Fundamental Analysis of Three Major Edible Oils - Policy: China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed has been finalized. - Foreign factors: In the USDA monthly report, the estimated yield per acre of US soybeans has increased from 52.5 bushels to 53.6 bushels, the estimated soybean planting area has been reduced from 83.4 million acres to 80.9 million acres, and the US soybean output has decreased from 4.335 billion bushels to 4.292 billion bushels. The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of July has increased by 4.02% from the previous month to 2.11 million tons; the crude palm oil output in July has increased by 7.09% from the previous month to 1.81 million tons; the palm oil export volume in July has increased by 3.82% month - on - month to 1.31 million tons. - Import and crushing: The operating rate of oil mills has increased by 3% from the previous week, and the soybean inventory has increased. The rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 150,000 tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from the previous week. - Inventory: As of August 8, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas has increased to 110,000 tons; the commercial inventory of palm oil in oil mills has increased to 599,800 tons; the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills has increased to 1,137,700 tons. - Spot: The spot prices of edible oils have risen in resonance this week. The spot price of palm oil has increased by 3.92%, the spot price of soybean oil has increased by 1.65%, and the spot price of rapeseed oil has increased by 2.05%. [29] Strategy Recommendation - Palm oil futures have risen by 4.09% this week. The MPOB monthly supply - demand report shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of July has increased by 4.02% from the previous month to 2.11 million tons; the crude palm oil output in July has increased by 7.09% from the previous month to 1.81 million tons; the palm oil export volume in July has increased by 3.82% month - on - month to 1.31 million tons. Although Malaysia's palm oil output in July is still at a relatively high level, the increase is slightly lower than market expectations, and exports have emerged from a slump. The inventory build - up in July is less than market expectations. Before the Indian Diwali in October, the market expects that Indian purchases will drive up the export demand for Malaysian palm oil. Attention should be paid to subsequent high - frequency supply - demand data. In the domestic market, high costs support the spot price of palm oil. The import profit window for palm oil has recently opened. One more purchase contract for November has been added yesterday, and a total of two purchase contracts have been added this week. Downstream buyers mainly purchase as needed. Continuous attention should be paid to high - frequency data on Malaysian palm oil. [30] Next Week's Focus and Risk Warnings - High - frequency data on Malaysian palm oil and weather. [33]