股指黄金周度报告-20250815

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - China's economic recovery foundation is unstable, with insufficient demand as the main contradiction. The stock index may adjust after continuous rises, and gold may continue to adjust after a short - term rebound. In the short term, beware of the callback risk of the stock index and maintain a band - short view on gold. In the medium - to - long term, the stock index may maintain a wide - range shock, and gold has a risk of deep adjustment [4][38] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomic Situation - From January to July this year, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment continued to decline, and industrial added value decreased year - on - year but remained at a high level. Social consumer goods retail growth slowed down, indicating that China's economic recovery foundation is unstable, with the characteristics of strong production but weak demand and strong service industry but weak manufacturing still significant [4][38] 3.2 Stock Index Fundamental Data - The gap between M1 and M2 has further narrowed, indicating abundant market liquidity, but the inflection point of enterprise profit growth has not arrived, and enterprises are still in the active de - stocking stage. The balance of margin trading in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has exceeded 2 trillion yuan, and the central bank conducted 7118 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations this week, achieving a net withdrawal of 4149 billion yuan [15][18] 3.3 Gold Fundamental Data - In July, the US CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, the same as last month, and the core CPI rose 3.1% year - on - year (previous value 2.9%), reaching a new high since March. The Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates significantly in September. The warehouse receipts and inventory of Shanghai gold futures have increased significantly, while the New York futures inventory has continued to decline, and the market's bullish sentiment has cooled [22][23][35] 3.4 Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: In July, investment, consumption, and industrial added value were lower than expected, and enterprise profits have not improved significantly. Be cautious about the callback risk of the stock index after continuous rises. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in September has been digested, and the risk - aversion sentiment has cooled. Gold may continue to adjust after the end of the rebound, maintaining a band - short view. Medium - to - long term: The valuation of the stock index is mainly dragged down by the decline in enterprise profit growth, and it may maintain a wide - range shock. Gold has a risk of deep adjustment due to the fading of risk - aversion sentiment and the full pricing of the interest - rate cut expectation [38]