蛋白数据日报-20250815

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After Trump signaled a trade negotiation on Twitter without specific measures, the soybean tariff remains at 23%, and the policy of postponing it for another 90 days is implemented today. The price of US soybeans has dropped, and the sentiment in the domestic market has recovered. Meanwhile, news of the rapeseed anti - dumping policy has helped the soybean meal price rebound. If there are no significant policy changes between China and the US, the MOI is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips supported by import costs, and short - term attention should be paid to the results of tonight's supply - demand report [7][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - On August 12th, the 43% soybean meal spot basis (against the main contract) in Dalian, Tianjin, and other places showed different degrees of decline, with Dalian down 9, Tianjin down 19, etc. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong increased by 71. There were also corresponding changes in spreads such as M9 - M1 and M9 - RM9 [6] - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.1431, and the Brazilian soybean CNF premium and other international data also had corresponding values and trends [7] Supply Situation - This week, the good - quality rate of US soybeans dropped to 69%, still at a high level, and the weather in the production areas will be normal in the next two weeks. Under the pressure of the concentrated arrival of Brazilian soybeans, the domestic soybean crushing volume in August is expected to exceed 10 million tons. Soybean meal is expected to continue to accumulate inventory. The purchase of ships from October to January is progressing slowly, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the far - month under the current China - US trade policy [7] Demand Situation - In the short term, the high inventory of pigs and poultry is expected to support the demand. However, the policy to control the inventory and weight of pigs is expected to affect the far - month supply of pigs. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, and the提货 volume is at a high level. In some areas, wheat is replacing corn, reducing the use of protein. This week, the far - month trading volume of soybean meal increased significantly [7][8] Inventory Situation - The domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level, the speed of soybean meal inventory accumulation has slowed down but is still in the accumulation cycle, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has decreased [8]