Soochow Securities·2025-08-15 11:37Investment Rating - The investment rating for Geely Automobile is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The Q2 performance of Geely Automobile met expectations, with a strong new vehicle cycle [1] - The company has adjusted its annual sales target to 3 million units due to strong performance in the first half of the year [8] - New models are set to launch, including the Galaxy A7 and several other new energy vehicles, which are expected to improve average selling price (ASP) [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue for Q2 was 77.79 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 28.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.3% [8] - Net profit for Q2 was 3.62 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 60.0% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 36.2% [8] - The company achieved total sales of 705,000 units in Q2, with a year-on-year increase of 46.9% [8] - The ASP for vehicles was 110,000 yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 12.6% [8] - Gross margin for Q2 was 17.1%, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.7 percentage points [8] - The company expects to achieve net profits of 15 billion yuan, 22.1 billion yuan, and 29.5 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [8] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 0.53 yuan, 1.65 yuan, 1.49 yuan, 2.20 yuan, and 2.93 yuan respectively [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the same years are projected to be 33.26, 10.62, 11.79, 7.98, and 5.98 respectively [1] - The company’s total revenue is expected to grow from 179.85 billion yuan in 2023 to 511.66 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 16.15% [1]