GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2025-08-15 11:54Investment Rating - The report gives an "Accumulate" rating for the sweetener industry, marking it as a first-time rating [5]. Core Insights - The sweetener market in China is poised for significant growth, with a current per capita sugar consumption of approximately 30g/day, exceeding the recommended limit of 25g/day. This indicates a substantial potential for sugar substitutes [1][9]. - The report highlights the dual demand for health and sweetness, leading to the rise of sugar substitutes. Nearly 40% of American consumers are opting for low-calorie or zero-calorie sugars to reduce calorie intake [1][17]. - The report identifies two main investment themes: the ongoing demand for artificial sweeteners like sucralose and the potential for new natural sweeteners like allulose, driven by consumer acceptance and technological advancements [3]. Market Overview - The sweetener market is characterized by a growing trend towards reduced sugar consumption, with a projected sugar consumption of 15.9 million tons in China for the 2025/26 season, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 0.5% from 2015/16 to 2025/26 [9]. - The beverage sector represents the largest share of sugar demand, with a market penetration rate for sugar-free beverages at only 7.9% in 2023, suggesting significant room for growth [20][22]. Selection Criteria - The choice of sweeteners is influenced by economic factors, taste, and safety. Artificial sweeteners generally have a higher sweetness-to-price ratio compared to natural sweeteners, which often have lower ratios [2][28]. - Safety concerns are paramount, with natural sweeteners typically having no Acceptable Daily Intake (ADI) limits, while artificial sweeteners are subject to ADI restrictions and some face safety controversies [2][40]. Product Analysis - Sucralose is identified as the largest artificial sweetener in terms of market space, with a global sales volume of approximately 20,000 tons in 2023, reflecting a 7% year-on-year growth [46]. - Erythritol, a low-calorie sugar alcohol, has seen rapid market expansion, particularly following its use in popular beverages, leading to a significant increase in production capacity [63][65]. Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer education and acceptance for the successful adoption of new sweeteners like allulose, which currently faces low consumer awareness [3][42]. - Investment opportunities are highlighted in companies with strong technological capabilities and financial strength, particularly those involved in the production of sucralose and erythritol [3][3].