有色金属周度报告-20250815

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - In the short - term, lithium carbonate is prone to rise and difficult to fall, but market sentiment may fluctuate, so positions should not be too heavy; in the long - term, the monthly output of lithium carbonate is still rising, and the oversupply pattern remains unchanged [43]. - For alumina and Shanghai aluminum, in the short - term, they will oscillate within a range, and it is advisable to go long on dips; in the long - term, as it enters the downstream consumption peak season, pay attention to the improvement of downstream orders, and if consumption recovers, Shanghai aluminum has upward momentum [44][45]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Main Metal Spot Price Trends - Copper: The futures主力合约 (CU2509) rose from 78,490 to 79,060, a weekly increase of 0.73%; the spot price rose from 78,550 to 79,200, a weekly increase of 0.83% [2]. - Aluminum: The futures主力合约 (AL2510) rose from 20,650 to 20,750, a weekly increase of 0.48%; the spot price rose from 20,640 to 20,700, a weekly increase of 0.29% [2]. - Zinc: The futures主力合约 (ZN2510) rose from 22,520 to 22,530, a weekly increase of 0.04%; the spot price fell from 22,490 to 22,460, a weekly decrease of 0.13% [2]. - Lead: The futures主力合约 (PB2509) rose from 16,845 to 16,850, a weekly increase of 0.03%; the spot price fell from 16,725 to 16,700, a weekly decrease of 0.15% [2]. - Nickel: The futures主力合约 (NI2510) fell from 121,340 to 120,770, a weekly decrease of 0.47%; the spot price fell from 121,950 to 121,500, a weekly decrease of 0.37% [2]. - Alumina: The futures主力合约 (AO2601) rose from 3,201 to 3,205, a weekly increase of 0.12%; the spot price remained unchanged at 3,270 [2]. - Industrial silicon: The futures主力合约 (SI2511) rose from 8,710 to 8,805, a weekly increase of 1.09%; the spot price rose from 9,400 to 9,600, a weekly increase of 2.13% [2]. - Lithium carbonate: The futures主力合约 (LC2511) rose from 76,960 to 86,900, a weekly increase of 12.92%; the spot price rose from 71,500 to 82,000, a weekly increase of 14.69% [2]. - Polysilicon: The futures主力合约 (PS2511) rose from 50,790 to 52,740, a weekly increase of 3.84%; the spot price remained unchanged at 47,000 [2]. 3.2 Copper Inventory in Major Exchanges - As of August 15, the SHFE copper inventory was 86,300 tons, an increase of 4,400 tons (5.37%) from last week [13]. - As of August 15, the LME copper inventory was 155,800 tons, a decrease of 5 tons (-0.03%) from last week [13]. - As of August 14, the COMEX copper inventory was 266,800 tons, an increase of 3,600 tons (1.37%) from last week [17]. 3.3 Copper Concentrate Spot TC As of August 14, the copper concentrate spot TC dropped to -$38/ton, a slight increase of $3/ton. The tight supply expectation at the mine end still exists, and the weekly processing fee increased slightly [20]. 3.4 Aluminum Raw Material Supply - The supply disruption of bauxite in Guinea has eased, but there is still room for fermentation. The previously suspended port in Guinea has resumed operations, but due to the rainy season and the unfinished government election, future supply disruptions may occur [21][23]. - The alumina supply side has seen an increase in production and a rapid increase in inventory. With the recovery of alumina prices, the production and willingness to start operations of alumina enterprises have increased simultaneously [24][25]. - The electrolytic aluminum supply side has maintained a high - level operation. Electrolytic aluminum enterprises have a strong willingness to start operations due to high profits, but the available primary aluminum in the market is limited. Recently, due to insufficient downstream demand, the profit of aluminum alloy ingots has declined, which may reduce the proportion of molten aluminum and increase the ingot - casting volume [28]. - As of August 15, the LME aluminum inventory was 479,600 tons, an increase of 9,000 tons from last week; the SHFE aluminum inventory was 120,700 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from last week; as of August 14, the COMEX aluminum inventory was 9,061 tons, a decrease of 50 tons from last week. Overall, the electrolytic aluminum inventory continued to accumulate this week [30][31]. 3.5 Demand Side - In June, automobile production and sales were 2.794 million and 2.904 million respectively, a month - on - month increase of 5.5% and 8.1%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.4% and 13.8%. New energy vehicle production and sales were 1.268 million and 1.329 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 35% and 36.9%, and new energy vehicle sales accounted for 45.8% of total vehicle sales [34]. - From January to June, the new housing construction area was 303.64 million square meters, a decrease of 20%. Among them, the new residential construction area was 222.88 million square meters, a decrease of 19.6%. The housing completion area was 225.67 million square meters, a decrease of 14.8%. Among them, the residential completion area was 162.66 million square meters, a decrease of 15.5% [36]. - In June, the new photovoltaic installed capacity was 14.36GW, a year - on - year decrease of 38% and a month - on - month decrease of 84.54%. As of the end of June, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.7%. Among them, the wind power installed capacity was 570 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.7% [38]. 3.6 Lithium - related Market - The lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) index soared this week. The latest quote was $940/ton, an increase of $163 (20.98%) from August 8, reaching an annual high [41]. - The core trading logic of the lithium carbonate market this week revolved around the shutdown expectation caused by the expiration of mining licenses of 8 mining areas. The main 2511 contract rose 12.91% this week. Although the Jiaxiaowo lithium mine has shut down, the mining licenses of the other 7 mines will not expire until 2027. The new Mineral Resources Law has upgraded the associated - mineral recognition standard for lithium. The shutdown of the Jiaxiaowo lithium mine has led to a monthly gap of about 10,000 tons of lithium carbonate. In the short - term, lithium carbonate is prone to rise and difficult to fall, but there is still uncertainty about the policy implementation of the other 7 mining areas [42]. 3.7 Strategy Recommendation - For lithium carbonate, in the short - term, be cautious of market sentiment fluctuations and do not hold heavy positions; in the long - term, the oversupply pattern remains unchanged [43]. - For alumina and Shanghai aluminum, in the short - term, they will oscillate within a range, and it is advisable to go long on dips; in the long - term, pay attention to the improvement of downstream orders during the consumption peak season [44][45].