饲料养殖周度报告-20250815

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content was provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The USDA供需 report was unexpectedly bullish, causing US soybeans to return above 1000 cents. Under the influence of anti - dumping measures on domestic rapeseed, the performance of double - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) was differentiated, with rapeseed meal showing more volatility and soybean meal remaining relatively stable due to import cost support [35]. - Currently, the domestic soybean supply is abundant, and oil mills have high soybean meal inventories. Downstream feed enterprises maintain high - inventory rolling, resulting in weak short - term follow - up buying willingness and sluggish soybean meal transactions at oil mills [35]. - In the short term, influenced by the cooling sentiment in the rapeseed sector and news of customs inspections in some areas, short - term trading is recommended for soybean meal; rapeseed meal is more volatile, and short - term trading should be accompanied by risk prevention [36]. - In the long term, the global soybean supply is ample, limiting the sustained upward momentum of the soybean sector [37]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Futures Prices: As of August 14, the closing price of the main soybean meal futures contract (M2601) was 3157 yuan/ton, up 2.77% from August 6; the main rapeseed meal futures contract (RM509) was 2686 yuan/ton, down 2.15%; the main corn futures contract (C2511) was 2281 yuan/ton, up 0.97%; the main live hog futures contract (LH2511) was 13900 yuan/ton, down 0.79%; the main egg futures contract (JD2510) was 3189 yuan/ton, down 5.60% [4]. - Spot Prices: On August 14, the spot price of 43% protein soybean meal in Shandong was 3000 yuan/ton, up 3.81% from August 6; the average price of rapeseed meal in China was 2600 yuan/ton, down 2.26%; the aggregated price of second - grade corn with 14.5% moisture in Bayuquan Port was 2310 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average daily slaughter price of commercial hogs in Henan was 13.76 yuan/kg, down 1.43%; the average price of eggs in the main producing areas in China was 3.07 yuan/jin, up 5.50% [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Cost - end: In the next 6 - 10 days, most areas in the main US soybean - producing states will have higher - than - normal temperatures, and half of the areas will have precipitation close to the median. The USDA's August report showed that although the 2025/26 US soybean yield per acre increased from 52.5 bushels to 53.6 bushels, the sown area decreased from 83.4 million acres to 80.9 million acres, and the production decreased from 4.335 billion bushels to 4.292 billion bushels, reaching the sixth - highest in history. The USDA lowered the 2025/26 US soybean ending inventory to 290 million bushels, lower than the market expectation of 351 million bushels and the July forecast of 310 million bushels, hitting a three - year low. In July, Brazil's soybean exports reached 12.25 million tons, a record high for the same period. From January to July, Brazil's cumulative exports of oil crops reached 77.2 million tons, the first time to exceed this level in the same period of previous years. As of August 6, Argentine farmers had pre - sold 28.83 million tons of 2024/25 soybeans, 870,000 tons more than a week ago [7]. - Supply - Import: Affected by Brazil's strong exports and concerns about supply due to Sino - US trade uncertainties, China's soybean imports in July reached a record high for the same period for the third consecutive month. In July, China imported 11.67 million tons of soybeans, a 4.8% decrease from June but still the highest for the same period in history, an 18.5% increase from the same period in 2024. The total soybean imports in the first seven months of this year reached 61.04 million tons, a 4.6% year - on - year increase. The market expects soybean imports in August and September to remain above 10 million tons, with most coming from Brazil. However, China has not booked any US soybean cargoes for the fourth quarter, raising concerns about a potential supply shortage [7]. - Demand - Pressing and Transaction: As of the week ending August 8, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.1775 million tons, with an operating rate of 61.21%. On August 14, the total soybean meal transaction volume was 73,700 tons, 2900 tons less than the previous day, and the spot transaction volume was 28,700 tons. The weekly average showed that the total soybean meal transaction volume was 511,980 tons, and the spot transaction volume was 70,920 tons. Currently, the domestic soybean supply is abundant, oil mills have high soybean meal inventories, and downstream feed enterprises maintain high - inventory rolling, resulting in weak short - term follow - up buying willingness and sluggish soybean meal transactions at oil mills [7]. - Inventory: As of the week ending August 8, the soybean inventory was 7.1056 million tons, an 8.38% increase from the previous week and a 0.59% decrease from the same period in 2024; the soybean meal inventory was 1.0035 million tons, a 3.66% decrease from the previous week and a 31.74% decrease from the same period in 2024 [7]. 3.3 Supply - end - Import: As of August 14, the CNF price of Brazilian soybeans was 497.00 US dollars/ton, up 12 US dollars/ton from the previous week; the CNF price of US West Coast soybeans was 454.00 US dollars/ton, up 17 US dollars/ton from the previous week [11][12]. - Pressing: As of the week ending August 14, the soybean crushing profit was 209.40 yuan/ton, up 56.50 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of the week ending August 8, the domestic oil mill's weekly soybean crushing volume was 2.359 million tons, up 129,500 tons from the previous week. As of August 8, the domestic soybean oil mill operating rate was 60%, an increase of 3 percentage points from the previous week [15]. 3.4 Inventory - end - As of August 14, the imported soybean port inventory was 6.7355 million tons, a decrease of 108,000 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the soybean port inventory is at a near - five - year low. As of August 1, the oil mill's soybean meal inventory was 960,900 tons, a decrease of 16,700 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the domestic mainstream oil mill's soybean meal inventory is at a near - five - year medium level [18]. 3.5 Demand - end - As of August 8, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal at domestic mainstream oil mills was 500,700 tons, an increase of 222,400 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, it is at a near - five - year high level [22]. 3.6 Pig - end No specific content was provided for analysis in the given text. 3.7 Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: Due to the cooling sentiment in the rapeseed sector and news of customs inspections in some areas, short - term trading is recommended for soybean meal; rapeseed meal is more volatile, and short - term trading should be accompanied by risk prevention [36]. - Long - term: The global soybean supply is ample, limiting the sustained upward momentum of the soybean sector [37]. 3.8 Next Week's Focus and Risk Warning The focus includes the weather in production areas, trade relations, and the arrival rhythm of imported soybeans [38].