长江期货鲜果周报：震荡偏强-20250815

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the fruit industry is "oscillating and strengthening" [3] Core Viewpoints - Apple prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend due to low inventory and growth impacts. The market for early - maturing and inventory Fuji apples is average, but with the upcoming supply increase of early - maturing paper - bag Gala apples in northern Shaanxi, the market situation will change [9]. - It is expected that red date prices will mainly oscillate upwards in the near future. The market trading atmosphere in the sales areas has improved, and good - quality products have seen a price increase. Attention should be paid to the impact of rainfall on the quality of red dates [39] Summary by Directory Apple Section 1. Weekly Viewpoint - In Shandong, the inventory of Fuji apples has a slightly faster turnover, but the volume is still small. In Shaanxi, the early - maturing Gala apples have uneven quality. In the sales areas, the market for high - quality apples is distinct, and the turnover of early - maturing and inventory Fuji apples is average. Apple prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend [9]. 2. Market Review - This week, the main apple futures contract oscillated and strengthened. The apple basis was 477 yuan, an increase of 219 yuan compared to last week [12]. 3. Apple Wholesale Market Price Trend - As of August 8, 2025, the wholesale price of all - variety apples was 9.51 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.16 yuan/kg from last week; the wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.75 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan/kg from last week. Recently, the spot price of Fuji apples has shown a weakening trend [17]. 4. Main Apple - Producing Areas - In Shandong, the prices of different grades of apples in Qixia are within a certain range. In Shaanxi, the prices of paper - bag Gala apples in Tongchuan and Weinan vary according to quality, and the current supply volume is not large [20]. 5. Cold - Storage Situation Analysis - As of August 13, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the main producing areas was 460,100 tons, a decrease of 75,800 tons from last week, and the turnover speed has slightly slowed down [22]. 6. Sales Area Market Summary - In the South China market, the number of trucks arriving at the Guangdong Chalong Market has slightly decreased. The market is still dominated by Fuji apples, with a small amount of early - maturing fruits. The turnover speed of high - quality products is acceptable, while that of poor - quality products is slow, and there is a slight backlog in the transfer warehouse [28]. 7. Apple Storage Profit Analysis - In the 2024 - 2025 production season, the profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants in Qixia was 0.4 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/jin from last week [32]. 8. Substitute Product Price Analysis - As of the 33rd week of 2025, the average wholesale price of six types of fruits monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 6.93 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg compared to the 32nd week. The prices of most fruits have decreased, with only pineapple and Ya pears showing an increase [35]. Red Date Section 1. Weekly Viewpoint - The main producing areas of Xinjiang grey dates are in the fruit - swelling period, and the first - crop fruits have begun to turn red and gain sugar. The trading atmosphere in the sales areas has improved, and the prices of good - quality products have increased. Red date prices are expected to oscillate upwards [39]. 2. Market Review - This week, the main red date futures contract rose strongly. The temperature in the main producing areas of Xinjiang grey dates was between 18°C and 30°C, with some areas experiencing light rain and strong winds. Attention should be paid to the impact of rainfall and weather changes [42]. 3. Spot Price Trend - In Hebei, Henan, and Guangzhou, the prices of red dates of different grades have increased to varying degrees, and the actual transaction prices vary according to origin and quality [47]. 4. Inventory Data - The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week was 9,686 tons, a decrease of 98 tons from last week, a decrease of 1.00% month - on - month and an increase of 79.94% year - on - year. The arrival volume in the sales areas has decreased, and the prices of good - quality products and off - grade products have shown a strengthening trend [49]. 5. Sales Area Market Profit Analysis - The average purchase price of grey dates in the main producing areas of Xinjiang is 5.33 yuan/kg, and the price of first - grade finished products in the Hebei sales area is 9.00 - 9.80 yuan/kg. The gross profit is 2.57 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.15 yuan/kg from last week [53]