铜产业链周度报告-20250815

Report Information - Report Title: Copper Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: August 15, 2025 [2] - Report Institution: AVIC Futures [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The copper market shows a complex situation with both supply - side and demand - side factors at play. Short - term copper prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, with a support level at 78,000 [5][48]. - There is still room for debate on whether the Fed will cut interest rates in September [9]. Summary by Directory 01 Report Summary - The report analyzes the copper market from multiple aspects including macro - economic data, supply and demand fundamentals, and inventory changes. It concludes that short - term copper prices will remain volatile with a support level at 78,000 [5][48]. 02 Multi - empty Focus Bullish Factors - Domestic TC is low and stable, and the accumulation of social inventories is limited [7]. - The continuous implementation of domestic growth - stabilizing policies, such as consumption loan subsidies and investment in special bonds, is expected to boost copper demand [12][14]. Bearish Factors - The US PPI data shows that inflation may be more persistent, which slightly reduces the market's expectation of a September interest - rate cut. There are significant differences within the Fed on whether to cut interest rates [9]. 03 Data Analysis Macroeconomic Data - US inflation data shows that in July, CPI was lower than expected while core CPI was pulled up by commodities. The PPI soared both year - on - year and month - on - month, exceeding market expectations [9]. - China's domestic growth - stabilizing policies continue to be implemented, including consumer loan subsidies and investment in special bonds [14]. Supply - side Data - China's copper ore imports in July remained stable. The import volume of copper ore and concentrates in July was 2.56 million tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to July was 17.314 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8% [15][16]. - The tightness at the mine end continues. The domestic copper concentrate spot processing fee remains low and stable. Overseas supply - side disturbances have increased slightly, but some situations have subsided [18][19]. - The output of electrolytic copper remains at a high level. In July, the output of SMM China electrolytic copper increased by 39,400 tons month - on - month, a rise of 3.47% and a year - on - year increase of 14.21%. SMM expects a slight decline in domestic refined copper output in August [21][22]. - China's scrap copper imports in June decreased slightly. The import volume was 183,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.06% and a year - on - year increase of 8.49%. The supply from Thailand increased, while that from the US decreased significantly [24][25]. Demand - side Data - The power sector is growing rapidly. As of the end of June, the country's cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.1 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 54.2% [31][32]. - The demand for copper in the real estate sector remains weak. From January to July, real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% year - on - year, and various real estate indicators such as construction area and new - start area also declined [33][34]. - The automobile industry maintains high - level prosperity. In July, the output of new energy vehicles was 1.176 million, a year - on - year increase of 17.1%, and the cumulative output from January to July was 8.049 million, a year - on - year increase of 32.9%. The output of automobiles in July was 2.51 million, a year - on - year increase of 8.4%, and the cumulative output from January to July was 18.075 million, a year - on - year increase of 10.5% [36][38]. - The production schedule of home appliances is still decreasing year - on - year, but the decline in August is expected to narrow. The total production schedule of air - conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in August was 26.97 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.9% [39][41]. Inventory Data - Copper inventories in various regions have increased. LME copper inventories have slowed down in the rate of accumulation, SHFE copper inventories have slightly increased, COMEX inventories have continued to accumulate, and domestic spot electrolytic copper inventories have also increased slightly [42][43]. Price Data - The premium of domestic copper spot has widened, and the premium or discount of foreign copper has also widened. On August 14, the spot premium of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 copper was around 170 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 spot discount was around - 88.75 US dollars/ton [45]. 04后市研判 - Short - term copper prices will continue to fluctuate, with a support level at 78,000 [48].