南华原油市场日报：盘面缩量反弹，美俄会谈成关键变量-20250815

Group 1: Report Summary - Report title: Nanhua Crude Oil Market Daily - Contracting Volume Rebound on the Disk, US-Russia Talks a Key Variable [1] - Report date: August 15, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Yang Xinyue (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0022518) [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoint - As the US-Russia talks approach, geopolitical expectations have cooled, and the overnight market rebounded slightly, mainly due to short covering, indicating that shorts chose to take profits and avoid potential geopolitical risks if the talks go poorly. Fundamentals will dominate the market, with seasonal demand weakening and the risk of supply surplus increasing, so time is bearish for crude oil, and the upside is limited. Attention should be paid to the US-Russia talks at 3:30 am Beijing time on Saturday [3]. Group 3: Long-Short Analysis Short-term Long-Short Game - In the short term, crude oil has stopped falling and rebounded, with the daily line closing above the 5-day moving average, and the downward pressure has marginally eased. The core driver is short covering ahead of the "Trump meeting" to lock in profits and avoid geopolitical risks, leading to a rebound on contracting volume. However, this rebound has not disrupted the daily-level downward trend, and it is necessary to observe whether the 5-day moving average can be effectively stabilized. The overlapping area of the 5-day and 10-day moving averages forms a key resistance, and the divergence between volume and price will increase the risk of a mid-term breakdown [4]. US-Russia Talks as a Key Variable for the Mid-term Direction - The market anticipates a neutral to bearish outcome of the talks. If the talks lead to a thaw between the US and Russia (such as paving the way for a tripartite meeting) and no tense news is released, crude oil will lose geopolitical support. If the geopolitical situation cools down to a ceasefire, the previous geopolitical premium will gradually correct, and the market will weaken. Only if the talks deteriorate unexpectedly (such as imposing secondary tariffs on Russia and strengthening sanctions) could it trigger a re-pricing of geopolitical risks, driving a rebound and consolidating the July trading range, which is the only clear short-term bullish scenario [5]. Fundamental Weakening as a Long-term Constraint - The current fundamentals have clearly weakened. On the demand side, as the peak summer oil consumption season in the Northern Hemisphere approaches its turning point, the marginal downward pressure will become more apparent. On the supply side, the risk of surplus is rising, and the market's expectation of the supply-demand gap has shifted from a tight balance to a loose one, which may continue to dominate trading. Moreover, the current market has not fully priced in the fundamental bearishness, and after short-term event-driven disturbances subside, the fundamental negatives may gradually be priced in, leading to a potential catch-up decline [6]. Significant Risk of Medium- to Long-term Valuation Decline - Without new geopolitical premiums, crude oil will return to fundamental-driven trading, and Brent crude is likely to decline to the $60 - $65 per barrel range in the medium term, which corresponds to a reasonable valuation center under the expectation of a loose supply-demand balance. Overall, time is unfavorable for bulls [7]. Factors - Bullish factors: Short-term technical repair signals, short covering by funds, and potential geopolitical risk pricing opportunities [8] - Bearish factors: Bearish pricing expectations for the US-Russia talks and fundamental weakening pressure [8] Group 4: Market Dynamics US-Russia Talks - Russia has confirmed that the "Putin-Trump meeting" will be held at a US military base in Alaska. Sources said that US Middle East envoy Witkoff, Russian Finance Minister, Russian Defense Minister, and Russian presidential envoy and head of the sovereign wealth fund Kirill Dmitriev are expected to attend the "Trump-Putin meeting" in Alaska on Friday (Saturday morning Beijing time). Kremlin aide Ushakov said that Putin and Trump will hold a one-on-one meeting with an interpreter, and the summit will discuss sensitive issues. Russian President Putin said that the US is making positive efforts to end the conflict and promote a nuclear arms control agreement. If the two countries reach an agreement in the field of nuclear arms control, peace between Russia and the US and in the wider world will be strengthened. US President Trump said that in his second meeting with Putin, Zelensky will be more important, and he believes that Putin and Zelensky will achieve peace [9]. Russian Policy - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak supports extending the gasoline export ban until September, stating that the domestic fuel supply is sufficient [9]. EIA Natural Gas Report - As of the week ending August 8, the total US natural gas inventory was 318.6 billion cubic feet, an increase of 56 billion cubic feet from the previous week, a decrease of 79 billion cubic feet from the same period last year (a year-on-year decline of 2.4%), and an increase of 19.6 billion cubic feet (a 6.6% increase) compared to the 5-year average [10]. Indian Oil Imports - Sources said that India's BPCL has awarded a tender for US oil imports from September to March next year to trader Glencore. Starting from September, Glencore will supply 2 million barrels of WTI Midland crude oil per month. An executive of India's Bharat Petroleum said that last month's imports of Russian crude oil were affected by changes in discounts. Without sanctions, the company hopes to maintain the proportion of processed Russian crude oil at 33% - 35% [10]. Group 5: Global Crude Oil Price and Spread Changes - The table shows the prices and spreads of various crude oils on August 15, 2025, August 14, 2025, and August 8, 2025, as well as their daily and weekly changes [11].