GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2025-08-15 12:03Report Industry Investment Ratings - Automobile Industry: Maintain "Overweight" rating for Geely Automobile [44] - Logistics and Warehousing Industry: Maintain "Overweight" rating for the express delivery sector, continue to be optimistic about the opportunity for earnings and valuation repair of express delivery companies [22] - Real Estate Industry: Maintain "Overweight" rating, expecting further adjustments to housing provident fund policies [32] - Yeast Industry: Maintain "Overweight" rating for Angel Yeast [35] - Industrial Automation Industry: Maintain "Overweight" rating for Yiheda [40] - Online Music Industry: Maintain "Overweight" rating for NetEase Cloud Music [54] - Steel Industry: Maintain "Overweight" rating for Shougang Co., Ltd. [58] - Internet Industry: Maintain "Overweight" rating for Tencent Holdings [63] - Software Industry: Maintain "Overweight" rating for Kingdee International [67] - Luggage Industry: Maintain "Overweight" rating for Samsonite [73] - Motorcycle Industry: Maintain "Overweight" rating for CF Motopower, and raise the target price [77] Core Views - Macro Economy: In July 2025, there was a divergence between money and credit. The growth rate of social financing stock increased, but loan growth turned negative. The growth rates of M2 and M1 both rebounded. The divergence was mainly due to the need to boost effective demand and the weakening of the scale complex of financial institutions. The government played an important role in credit expansion, and private sector asset - liability sheet repair influenced money - related phenomena [2][3][4] - Hong Kong Stock Market: The correlation between Hong Kong stocks and A - shares has been increasing, and the dependence on overseas liquidity has been weakening. The fundamentals of Hong Kong stocks are more closely related to the Chinese mainland. These changes may reflect new changes in the investment environment of Hong Kong stocks [6][7][8] - Robot Industry: The humanoid robot industry is driven by both "technology deepening" and "scenario implementation". Figure 02 has achieved breakthroughs in folding clothes and has innovative designs in dexterous hands, indicating the penetration from industrial to household scenarios [10][12][14] - Solar Energy Industry: The prices of the solar energy industry chain have stabilized, and the supply - demand situation is expected to improve. Some companies plan to cut production in September, which will support prices, and the photovoltaic sector has continuous layout opportunities [16] - Logistics and Warehousing Industry: The "anti - involution" in the express delivery industry in 2021 - 2022 drove the double repair of performance and valuation. In 2025, the "anti - involution" intensity exceeded expectations, alleviating short - term competition pressure and ensuring long - term healthy competition [20][21] - Real Estate Industry: The housing provident fund system has played an important role in stabilizing the real estate market. Optimizing provident fund policies can potentially boost housing consumption, especially in second - and third - tier cities. There is still room for further adjustment of provident fund policies [30][31][32] - Yeast Industry: Angel Yeast's performance has continued to improve in 2025. Domestic sales have recovered, and overseas markets have maintained rapid growth. The company's internal structure adjustment has had a weakening impact, and cost and price factors have driven profit improvement [37][38] - Industrial Automation Industry: Yiheda's performance has accelerated growth, with significant improvement in gross profit margin, mainly driven by the lithium - battery and automotive sectors. The company is accelerating its global layout and improving its one - stop procurement platform capabilities [40][41][43] - Automobile Industry: Geely Automobile's operating performance in the first half of 2025 increased significantly, with a significant increase in sales volume. The company has a reasonable brand structure, and with the implementation of the "Smart Geely 2025" strategy, revenue and net profit are expected to continue to grow [44] - Liquor and Beer Industry: Zhenjiu Liudu's report has cleared risks, and the company is actively promoting new products. The new products are expected to drive the company's growth rate to improve quarter - on - quarter, taking advantage of the low - base effect in the second half of 2025 [50][51][52] - Online Music Industry: NetEase Cloud Music's membership subscription business has grown steadily, and it has significantly reduced promotion and advertising expenses. The company's financial structure has continued to improve, and the online music business has achieved high - quality growth, while the social entertainment business is under pressure [54][55] - Steel Industry: Shougang Co., Ltd.'s performance has increased due to falling raw material prices and product structure optimization. The company is building its fourth strategic product, and its depreciation expenses are expected to decrease. The industry's supply - demand pattern is expected to improve [58][59][60] - Internet Industry: Tencent Holdings has continued to invest in the AI field, which has promoted revenue and profit growth. Its international games have performed well, and AI has accelerated game content production. AI has also driven the iteration and upgrading of advertising and platform functions [63][64][65] - Software Industry: Kingdee International's revenue has grown in high - quality, and its cloud transformation has entered the harvest period. The large - enterprise business has achieved high growth, and the AI contract amount has exceeded 150 million yuan, indicating strong corporate AI application demand [67][70][71] - Luggage Industry: Samsonite's profitability in Q2 2025 improved quarter - on - quarter, and the decline in North American Tumi sales narrowed. The company is actively responding to US tariff adjustments, and its profitability is expected to continue to stabilize and improve in Q3 [73][74][75] - Motorcycle Industry: CF Motopower's mid - year report in 2025 was outstanding, with rapid growth in revenue and performance. The company's three major business lines have contributed to growth, and the electric two - wheeled vehicle business has provided a new growth curve [77][78][79] - Financial Engineering: Options in the domestic market provide tools for strategies. Overseas market's covered products can reduce the net - value volatility of the underlying index. The covered strategies constructed with 300ETF and 500ETF and their corresponding options have different effects in different market conditions [83][84] - Finance: In July 2025, social financing continued to expand, with government financing contributing the most. Credit demand from the private sector was insufficient, and both corporate and household loans declined. The growth rates of M1 and M2 rebounded, and household deposits continued to move to risk assets [87][88][89] Summaries by Directory Macro专题: 《货币与信贷：为何背离》 - In July 2025, the growth rate of social financing stock increased to 9.0%, with new social financing of 1.16 trillion yuan. Government bonds increased significantly, while loans decreased. Credit decreased by 500 million yuan, and both corporate and household loans declined. The growth rates of M2 and M1 rebounded. The divergence between money and credit was due to the need to boost effective demand and the weakening of the scale complex of financial institutions [2][3] 海外策略研究: 《对港股热点研究问题的思考 - 20250815》 - The correlation between Hong Kong stocks and A - shares has been increasing since 2020, while the correlation with US stocks has weakened. The liquidity of Hong Kong stocks has become less dependent on overseas factors, and its fundamentals are more closely related to the Chinese mainland. These changes may be due to geopolitical factors, the return of Chinese concept stocks, and the inflow of domestic capital [6][7][8] 行业跟踪报告: 机器人《Helix 模型助力 Figure 02 自主折衣，灵巧手工程创新实现突破》 - Figure 02 has mastered clothes - folding skills through algorithm optimization and data accumulation, demonstrating its technical generalization ability. Its dexterous hand design uses under - actuated modular finger components, which is an engineering innovation. The robot industry is driven by "technology deepening" and "scenario implementation", and is expected to expand from industrial to household scenarios [12][13][14] 行业跟踪报告: 太阳能《产业链价格持稳，供需情况有望修复》 - The prices of the solar energy industry chain have remained stable, with a slight increase in polysilicon prices. Some companies plan to cut production in September to relieve supply - demand pressure. The photovoltaic sector has continuous layout opportunities [16] 行业专题研究: 物流仓储《反内卷保障良性竞争，监管力度决定持续性》 - The "anti - involution" in the express delivery industry in 2021 - 2022 drove the double repair of performance and valuation. In 2025, the "anti - involution" intensity exceeded expectations, alleviating short - term competition pressure and ensuring long - term healthy competition. The regulatory intensity of the postal administration will determine the sustainability of price increases and future profit elasticity [20][21][22] 行业周报: 基础化工《全固态锂电池关键难题突破，世界机器人大会在北京开幕》 - With the development of emerging technologies, the demand for high - performance copper - clad laminates has increased. Solid - state batteries have broad application prospects, and the high - end new materials in the robot field are realizing import substitution. Chemical new - material companies such as Shengquan Group are recommended [24] 行业专题研究: 房地产《优化用途稳刚需，增加效用惠民》 - The housing provident fund system has developed rapidly in the past decade, with an expanding coverage and an increasing proportion of housing - related withdrawals. Optimizing provident fund policies can potentially boost housing consumption, especially in second - and third - tier cities. There is still room for further adjustment of provident fund policies [30][31][32] 公司半年报点评: 安琪酵母（600298）《盈利改善持续，扣非增速亮眼》 - In 2025, Angel Yeast's performance has continued to improve. Domestic sales have recovered, and overseas markets have maintained rapid growth. The company's internal structure adjustment has had a weakening impact, and cost and price factors have driven profit improvement [37][38] 公司半年报点评: 怡合达（301029）《锂电、汽车领域引领增长，毛利率提升显著；加速全球布局》 - Yiheda's performance has accelerated growth, with significant improvement in gross profit margin, mainly driven by the lithium - battery and automotive sectors. The company is accelerating its global layout and improving its one - stop procurement platform capabilities [40][41][43] 海外报告: 吉利汽车（0175）《2025 年上半年经营业绩大幅增长》 - Geely Automobile's operating performance in the first half of 2025 increased significantly, with a 47% increase in sales volume to 1.409 million vehicles. The company has a reasonable brand structure, and with the implementation of the "Smart Geely 2025" strategy, revenue and net profit are expected to continue to grow [44] 海外报告: 珍酒李渡（6979）《报表释压，关注新品》 - Zhenjiu Liudu's report has cleared risks, and the company is actively promoting new products such as "Dazhen" liquor and "Bull Market News" beer. The new products are expected to drive the company's growth rate to improve quarter - on - quarter, taking advantage of the low - base effect in the second half of 2025 [50][51][52] 海外报告: 网易云音乐（9899）《会员订阅业务稳健增长，大幅削减推广及广告费用》 - NetEase Cloud Music's membership subscription business has grown steadily, and it has significantly reduced promotion and advertising expenses. The company's financial structure has continued to improve, and the online music business has achieved high - quality growth, while the social entertainment business is under pressure [54][55] 公司跟踪报告: 首钢股份（000959）《盈利修复增长，产品结构持续优化》 - Shougang Co., Ltd.'s performance has increased due to falling raw material prices and product structure optimization. The company is building its fourth strategic product, and its depreciation expenses are expected to decrease. The industry's supply - demand pattern is expected to improve [58][59][60] 海外报告: 腾讯控股（0700）《延续高质量增长，AI 建设能力不断强化》 - Tencent Holdings has continued to invest in the AI field, which has promoted revenue and profit growth. Its international games have performed well, and AI has accelerated game content production. AI has also driven the iteration and upgrading of advertising and platform functions [63][64][65] 海外报告: 金蝶国际（0268）《大型企业业务进展亮眼，合同彰显 AI 应用需求旺盛》 - Kingdee International's revenue has grown in high - quality, and its cloud transformation has entered the harvest period. The large - enterprise business has achieved high growth, and the AI contract amount has exceeded 150 million yuan, indicating strong corporate AI application demand [67][70][71] 海外报告: 新秀丽（1910）《25Q2 盈利能力环比改善，北美 Tumi 降幅收窄》 - Samsonite's profitability in Q2 2025 improved quarter - on - quarter, and the decline in North American Tumi sales narrowed. The company is actively responding to US tariff adjustments, and its profitability is expected to continue to stabilize and improve in Q3 [73][74][75] 公司半年报点评: 春风动力（603129）《中报表现亮眼，三大业务不断向上》 - CF Motopower's mid - year report in 2025 was outstanding, with rapid growth in revenue and performance. The company's three major business lines have contributed to growth, and the electric two - wheeled vehicle business has provided a new growth curve [77][78][79] 金融工程专题报告: 《基于 A 股市场的备兑策略研究》 - Options in the domestic market provide tools for strategies. Overseas market's covered products can reduce the net - value volatility of the underlying index. The covered strategies constructed with 300ETF and 500ETF and their corresponding options have different effects in different market conditions [83][84] 金融工程专题报告: 《行业轮动四象限策略综述》 - A monthly industry rotation model is constructed from four dimensions: prosperity, sentiment, technology, and macro - economy. As of the end of July 2025, the cumulative return of the industry long - position portfolio was 18.1%, with a cumulative excess return of 8.3% compared to the benchmark portfolio [85] 事件点评: 《7 月金融数据全览》 - In July 2025, social financing continued to expand, with government financing contributing the most. Credit demand from the private sector was insufficient, and both corporate and household loans declined. The growth rates of M1 and M2 rebounded, and household deposits continued to move to risk assets [87][88][89]